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Kerry, John

Kerry Takes Slight Lead in Florida Presidential Race, Poll Indicates

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

A statewide poll conducted for the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and Florida Times-Union has found Democratic candidate John Kerry taking a slight lead in the presidential race in Florida, just before his party's national convention. The poll of 600 likely Florida voters, conducted by the independent polling firm Research 2000, found Kerry leading President Bush 49 percent to 44 percent in a two-way matchup, with independent candidate Ralph Nader's name added, Kerry led by 47 percent to 44 percent.

The results indicate that Vice President Dick Cheney has become a drag on the Republican ticket, weighed down by his high "unfavorable" rating. Independent voters appear to be shifting towards the Democratic camp, with 53 percent favoring Kerry over Bush in a two-way matchup. This represents a dramatic change from the February poll, when independents just barely favored Kerry over Bush by 44 percent to 42 percent.

Key Takeaways:

  • Democratic candidate John Kerry has taken a slight lead in the presidential race in Florida, with a two-way matchup showing Kerry leading President Bush 49 percent to 44 percent.
  • Independent voters are shifting towards the Democratic camp, with 53 percent favoring Kerry over Bush in a two-way matchup.
  • Vice President Dick Cheney has become a drag on the Republican ticket, weighed down by his high "unfavorable" rating.
  • Independent candidate Ralph Nader potentially takes crucial votes away from the Democratic ticket, with 3 percent of voters backing him and 6 percent undecided.
  • The results show that Nader's presence may be a concern for the Democratic ticket, given his 1.6 percent share of the vote in Florida in 2000.
  • The poll found that only 45 percent of those surveyed were confident "in the integrity of the voting system since Florida eliminated paper ballots in favor of voting machines."
  • A resurgent Kerry campaign has potential to win over military-minded states in the South.
  • The war on terrorism and swift military victory in Iraq and Afghanistan has been sapped by controversies over Bush's handling of intelligence information and long, debilitating U.S. military occupations abroad.
  • Both Kerry and Bush retain strong support in their respective voting blocs, with Kerry favored by 55 percent of Florida voters age 60 and older and by 57 percent of those who live in South Florida.

Statistics:

  • 49 percent: Kerry's lead over Bush in the statewide poll.
  • 53 percent: Number of independent voters favoring Kerry over Bush in a two-way matchup.
  • 41 percent: Number of voters with a favorable view of Cheney, 42 percent had an unfavorable view and 17 percent had no opinion.
  • 45 percent: Number of voters confident "in the integrity of the voting system since Florida eliminated paper ballots in favor of voting machines."
  • 1.6 percent: Ralph Nader's share of the vote in Florida in 2000.
  • 26 percent: Number of voters naming "economy/jobs" as the most important issue determining their vote for president.
  • 27 electoral votes: Number of electoral votes still up for grabs in Florida.

Sources:

  • South Florida Sun-Sentinel
  • Florida Times-Union
  • Research 2000 (independent polling firm)
  • Strategic Vision (public affairs agency in Atlanta)
  • Mason-Dixon Polling and Research
  • Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services

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