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Political parties

Kurdish Party's High-Stakes Election Decision

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Turkey's upcoming June 2015 general election will be pivotal for Kurdish representation in parliament. The Kurdish-dominated Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) has chosen to contest the election as a party, rather than as independent candidates, sparking debate within the Kurdish community. This decision poses a significant risk for the HDP, as it may lose all its seats in parliament, leading to no Kurdish representation. However, if the HDP succeeds in winning over 10 percent of the vote, it could secure more than 50 seats, a historic victory for Kurdish politics.

Key Takeaways:

  • The HDP's decision to contest the election as a party has sparked debate within the Kurdish community, with some fearing the loss of Kurdish representation in parliament.
  • Kurdish-affiliated parties have traditionally run independents to circumvent the 10 percent national threshold, but the HDP's constituency represents around 6-8 percent nationally, making a party win unlikely.
  • If the HDP fails to reach the 10 percent threshold, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) will be further empowered to change the constitution and introduce a presidential system.
  • President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's AKP has reached out to jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, passed a new law enabling formal peace talks with PKK guerrillas, and put forth a positive image of Ocalan in state-run media as part of a new "peace process."
  • Kurdish politicians hope greater parliamentary pressure can push Erdogan to make concessions, but the PKK's mobilization in Syria and northern Iraq has raised fears that the dialogue may not last.
  • The HDP's failure to pass the 10 percent threshold could lead to civil unrest and strengthen the PKK as an organization.
  • Kurdish movements plan to establish a Kurdistan parliament in Diyarbakir and ratchet up criticism of the lack of Kurdish representation in Turkey's parliament.
  • The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and other multilateral organizations have warned that Erdogan's plans for a presidential system could undermine democratic institutions in Turkey.

Statistics:

  • The HDP currently enjoys around 8.5 percent support, according to opinion polls.
  • The AKP has reached out to jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan and passed a new law enabling formal peace talks with PKK guerrillas.
  • The Turkish Constitution grants the president significant powers, but Erdogan appears to seek an executive presidency with greater powers than the legislature and judiciary.
  • The HDP's co-chairman, Selahattin Demirtas, received 9.8 percent of the vote in the presidential contest in August 2014.

Sources:

  • Mustafa Gurbuz, "The Kurdish Conundrum in Turkey's Elections," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Sada, 2015.
  • "Turkey's Kurds and the AKP's Peace Process," The Daily Star, 2015.
  • "Turkish Kurds Fear Election Risks," Middle East Online, 2015.
  • "Turkey's Kurdish party to run in June election," Al Jazeera, 2015.
  • "Kurdish party's election decision sparks debate," Hurriyet Daily News, 2015.

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