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Starmer, Keir

Labour's Welfare Reform Crisis: Starmer's Leadership Under Pressure

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Labour's prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, is facing a growing revolt from his own MPs over the government's welfare reform plans, with 120 Labour MPs now opposed to the measures. Despite Starmer's efforts to reassure his party, the rebellion shows no signs of abating, with Labour select committee chairs and even some moderate MPs signing on to the "reasoned amendment" aimed at killing the government's welfare reforms. The mood in the Labour Party is sulphurous, with some MPs calling for a "regime change" in No 10 and blaming Starmer's chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, and the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, for the crisis.

Key Takeaways:

  • The number of Labour MPs opposed to welfare reform has risen from 108 to 120, with over 130 expected to sign on by the end of play.
  • The rebels include not just hard-left MPs but also significant numbers of moderate MPs, including all 11 Labour select committee chairs and one former cabinet minister.
  • Almost 70 MPs who were elected for the first time at last year's election have also signed the amendment.
  • Ministers who oppose the reforms are being subjected to online abuse, with one scientist receiving threatening messages.
  • The government has threatened to bar rebels from ever getting a government job or becoming a "mission champion", but the threats have been met with derision.
  • Allies of Starmer admit that the seeds of the revolt lie in the winter fuel payment climbdown, which showed that the government could be forced to back down if pushed enough.
  • A minister pointed out that the U-turn on winter fuel payments infuriated MPs who were forced to vote for the policy, only for Starmer to repent later.
  • Starmer's allies claim that the prime minister believes welfare reform is a matter of absolute necessity, but rebels are equally convinced that they are in the right.

Statistics:

  • 120 Labour MPs currently oppose the government's welfare reforms.
  • 108 Labour MPs opposed the reforms at the start of the week.
  • 130 Labour MPs expected to sign the "reasoned amendment" by the end of play.
  • 1,000 people come onto disability benefits every day.
  • The explosion in the size of the welfare state is unsustainable.

Sources:

  • "Labour's welfare reform plans backed by Starmer as he prepares for showdown in House of Commons" by Steven Swinford, Oliver Wright, Chris Smyth, Daisy Eastlake, The Times

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