Linkage Between Al Qaeda in Yemen and Somalia Looms Large

Yemen and Somalia are two nations in East Africa that share similar challenges, including poverty, internal divisions, and Islamist insurgencies. The two countries have been separated by the Gulf of Aden, with Yemen's Al Qaeda branch and Somalia's Al Shabab militia operating independently. However, there is a growing concern that the two groups might be connected, particularly in the wake of the Christmas Day Northwest Airlines bombing attempt.

Key Takeaways:

• The connection between Al Qaeda in Yemen and Somalia is based on the shared jihadist and extremist ideology among elements in both countries, with the geographic proximity allowing for coordination and sustenance of extremist efforts.
• Ted Dagne, a Horn of Africa expert, notes that the linkage is stronger than just a possibility, with elements in both countries having the same extremist ideology and the potential for a coordinated campaign.
• The Obama administration's support for the Yemeni government focuses on development as much as military support, with experts emphasizing that solutions in both countries will largely come from greater leadership and vision within the respective nations.
• Somalia's Al Qaeda connection involves foreign jihadists arriving from various countries to carry out a war against the government, with security experts estimating that around 200 foreign fighters have entered Somalia from countries including Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the US.
• The Somali government faces a challenge in expelling Al Shabab from its territory, with experts suggesting that the Islamist militia has turned to a global jihad ideology, evident in recent suicide bomb attacks.
• The conflicts in Somalia and Yemen seem largely separate, with little evidence of a coordinated terrorist campaign between the two countries.
• Al Shabab's connection with Al Qaeda is recent, with the group's senior commander Muqtar Robow claiming that Somali fighters were leaving to help Islamists fight the government in Yemen, but an expert suggests this may be rhetorical.
• The likely solution to the standoff between the Somali government and Al Shabab lies in the Islamist militants wearing out their welcome after carrying out too many suicide bombings and killing innocent civilians.

Statistics:

• The Gulf of Aden, separating Yemen and Somalia, is approximately 100 miles wide.
• Miami is around 100 miles from Cuba, an equivalent distance to the Gulf of Aden.
• The number of foreign jihadists estimated to have arrived in Somalia is around 200.
• The time frame for the Ethiopian Army's invasion of Somalia, where Islamists were ousted from power in the Islamic Courts Union government, is December 2006.
• The date of the recent university graduation ceremony in Mogadishu where a suicide bomb attack occurred is December 3.

Sources:

• Scott Baldauf, "Terror Connection: Is Al Qaeda in Yemen Linking Up with Somalia?", The Christian Science Monitor, December 30, 2009.
• Ted Dagne, Congressional Research Service, Horn of Africa expert.
• An unnamed Horn of Africa expert, speaking on condition of anonymity.
• An unnamed expert on Somalia, speaking on background.
• Al Shabab senior commander Muqtar Robow.