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Coronaviruses

London's NHS Workforce at Risk: 40% Could be Off Work Due to Covid

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

London's NHS is facing a severe strain on its workforce, with up to 40% of staff potentially off work due to rising Covid infections. Professor Alison Leary, a healthcare expert, estimates that the absence rate could increase further, putting a significant burden on the system. The NHS is already dealing with staff shortages, and the Omicron variant is exacerbating the issue.

Key Takeaways:

  • The NHS in London is experiencing a significant increase in absence rates, with up to 30% of staff absent due to Covid and Omicron.
  • The normal sickness rate in the NHS is around 4-5%, but it has increased to 8-9% due to Covid and Omicron.
  • Professor Alison Leary has modelled a scenario where up to 40% of the NHS workforce in London could be off work due to Covid, which she considers a "worst-case scenario".
  • Similar signs of staff absence are being seen in the North West of England and the Midlands, with increased rates of absence in both regions.
  • The Prime Minister has not announced further restrictions to control the Omicron variant, despite being briefed on the impact of Covid infections on hospital pressures.
  • Conservative MPs have urged caution in implementing further measures, with some suggesting a "wait-and-see" approach to the impact of infections on hospital admissions.

Statistics:

  • Around 122,000 people tested positive for Covid in the UK in the 24 hours leading up to Christmas Eve.
  • The hospital data on the Government dashboard has not been updated since December 20.
  • A high street expert has reported a drop of almost half of pre-pandemic footfall levels on Boxing Day in London's West End.
  • The Omicron variant has caused a "muted start" to the post-Christmas sales across the UK.

Sources:

  • BBC Radio 4's World At One programme
  • The West End Company
  • The Scottish Government
  • The UK Government
  • Professor Alison Leary, chair of healthcare and workforce modelling at London Southbank University
  • Jace Tyrrell, chief executive of The West End Company
  • Lucy Williamson, journalist, Reach plc

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