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Agricultural industry

Long-Term Yield Trends in Thailand's Agriculture Hold Key to Climate Adaptation

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Thailand's agriculture, a significant contributor to Southeast Asia's economy, faces major challenges due to climate variability and limited datasets. A recent study by Hokkaido University, published in the journal Field Crops Research, aimed to reconstruct long-term yield trends for rice, maize, and soybean in Thailand. The research analyzed annual crop yield data from 1918 to 2023 across 77 provinces in Thailand, revealing significant gaps in understanding yield stagnation and climate sensitivity.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study found that rice yields declined in the early 20th century but rose steadily after the 1960s, while maize yields accelerated in the 1980s, and soybean trends remained modest and variable.
  • Stagnation occurred in 68% of rice- and 49% of maize-growing provinces, especially where irrigation access or economic support was limited.
  • Soybean stagnation was more scattered, and nearly 70% of rice provinces showed positive El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) correlations, while maize and soybean responses were weaker or negative.
  • Climate-yield associations were strongest from 1970 to 1999, diminishing in recent decades, possibly due to improved adaptation or evolving teleconnection behavior.
  • The research highlights the importance of integrating climate risk monitoring into early warning systems and calls for adaptive strategies, including drought-tolerant varieties, climate-resilient practices, and targeted support for stagnating provinces.
  • Future work should incorporate socioeconomic data to refine localized climate adaptation.

Statistics:

  • The study analyzed annual crop yield data from 1918 to 2023 across 77 provinces in Thailand.
  • 68% of rice- and 49% of maize-growing provinces showed stagnation.
  • Nearly 70% of rice provinces showed positive ENSO correlations.
  • Climate-yield associations were strongest from 1970 to 1999, with an association of 0.5 or higher in 63% of rice and 45% of maize provinces.
  • The study found that climate-yield associations diminished in recent decades, with an association of 0.5 or higher in only 29% of rice and 20% of maize provinces.

Sources:

  • NewsRx. Reports from Hokkaido University Provide New Insights into Climate Research (Yield Dynamics of Major Crops In Thailand for the Period 1918-2023: Regional Patterns of Growth, Stagnation, and Climate Sensitivity). Global Warming Focus. November 3, 2025; p 457.
  • "Yield Dynamics of Major Crops In Thailand for the Period 1918-2023: Regional Patterns of Growth, Stagnation, and Climate Sensitivity." Field Crops Research, 2025;333.

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