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Adams, Gerry

Loyalist Cease-Fire Hopes Hit by IRA Leader's Comments

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Loyalist groups in Northern Ireland have been cautious in declaring a cease-fire to match the Irish Republican Army's (IRA) month-old cessation of violence. However, the largest loyalist paramilitary group, the Ulster Defense Association, has indicated it will not stop violence until the IRA delivers proof that its cease-fire is permanent. This development comes as IRA leader Gerry Adams made comments that there is a chance of a new IRA leadership emerging in two or three years and resuming violence if the causes of the conflict are not resolved.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Ulster Volunteer Force is close to declaring a cease-fire, but the Ulster Defense Association is not prepared to stop violence until the IRA delivers proof of its permanent cease-fire.
  • IRA leader Gerry Adams' comments on the possibility of a new IRA leadership emerging and resuming violence have set back hopes for a loyalist cease-fire.
  • The IRA's army council was deeply split on the issue of the cease-fire, with a 4-3 vote resulting in the decision to call a cease-fire.
  • Loyalist commanders are far from convinced that the IRA cease-fire will hold, with some indicating that the IRA is still using the threat of violence.
  • Unionist politicians in Northern Ireland have reacted with anger to Adams' comments, with some calling for the IRA to hand over its guns and explosives before talks can start with Sinn Fein.

Statistics:

  • 22-year-old Catholic man wounded in both legs in a sectarian murder attempt in north Belfast (Royal Ulster Constabulary)
  • 4-3 vote by the IRA's army council to call a cease-fire (RUC intelligence sources)
  • 3 months given to Sinn Fein by hard-liners in the IRA to deliver concessions from the British government (RUC sources)
  • 90% of the RUC licensed guns held by the IRA have not been handed over (BBC's Radio Ulster)

Sources:

  • "Unionist sources say loyalist groups may be close to declaring cease-fire" by RIC (RIC Belfast, Northern Ireland, Sept. 27)
  • Comments by Gerry Adams in the Boston Herald (Source: Boston Herald)
  • Comments by Gerry Adams on the BBC's Radio Ulster (BBC's Radio Ulster)
  • Comments by James Molyneaux in the New Zealand Herald (Source: New Zealand Herald)
  • Comments by Ian Paisley on the BBC's Radio Ulster (BBC's Radio Ulster)
  • Royal Ulster Constabulary intelligence sources
  • RUC sources

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