Mineral Shortages Threaten Clean Energy Transition

As the world grapples with the urgent need to transition away from fossil fuels and mitigate climate change, researchers at the Beijing Institute of Technology have sounded a warning about the increasing scarcity of vital minerals required to build clean energy technology. The scientists discovered that attempts to build enough clean energy infrastructure to limit global warming to 2C above pre-industrial temperatures would exhaust known reserves of several minerals in decades. Tin, used in wind turbines and solar panels, could be depleted by 2085, cadmium by 2060, and indium by 2035. The study highlights the need to find new reserves, particularly in remote regions of Africa and central Asia, while improving recycling and substituting common minerals for scarce ones.

Key Takeaways:

• Researchers at the Beijing Institute of Technology found that known reserves of tin, cadmium, and indium will be depleted in 2085, 2060, and 2035, respectively, if the world aims to limit climate change to 2C above pre-industrial temperatures.
• The minerals required for clean energy technology, such as cobalt, are distributed unevenly, posing a risk to the transition to a low-carbon economy.
• Countries must learn to trade openly to prevent mineral shortages from hindering the clean energy transition.
• Export restrictions and tariffs imposed by countries, such as China's restrictions on germanium, can exacerbate the problem.
• Clean technologies like electric vehicles, solar panels, and wind turbines are growing rapidly, but the world is not reducing fossil fuel use fast enough to meet the 2015 Paris agreement's goal of limiting global warming to "well below 2C".
• The International Energy Agency has forecast that the present pace of clean energy take up is putting the world on course for 2.4C of warming by 2100, a level that could have catastrophic consequences.

Statistics:

• 2085: The year by which the world's known reserve of tin is expected to be depleted.
• 2060: The year by which the world's known reserve of cadmium is expected to be depleted.
• 2035: The year by which the world's known reserve of indium is expected to be depleted.
• 70%: The percentage of cobalt that comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo.
• 20%: The average tariff imposed by the United States on other countries since President Trump took office.
• 1980: The year from which the scientists compared the growth of proven supplies of critical minerals.
• 2015: The year the Paris agreement was signed, aiming to limit global warming to "well below 2C".
• 2.4C: The level of warming forecast by the International Energy Agency by 2100 if the present pace of clean energy take up continues.

Sources:

• Beijing Institute of Technology
• Bloomberg New Energy Finance
• International Energy Agency
• The 2015 Paris agreement