Mongolia Faces Challenging Winter Ahead with Significant Risk of Devastating Zud Conditions

Parts of Mongolia are in for a harsh winter, with a substantial portion of the country at risk of experiencing zud, a severe weather phenomenon that can decimate livestock and rural livelihoods. The forecast for the 2025-2026 winter-spring season, developed by the National Agency for Meteorology and Environmental Monitoring (NAMEM), indicates that three percent of the country will face extremely severe zud conditions, while 22 percent is at high risk, 21 percent at moderate risk, and 28 percent at very low risk. The NAMEM's Agricultural Meteorology Research Division has emphasized the importance of early preparedness to mitigate potential losses, urging local authorities and herders to begin preparations to safeguard livestock and protect vulnerable households.

Key Takeaways:

• The National Agency for Meteorology and Environmental Monitoring (NAMEM) has issued a critical early warning about a challenging winter ahead for parts of Mongolia due to the risk of zud.
• The forecast indicates that 3% of the country will face very severe zud conditions, 22% at high risk, 21% at moderate risk, 26% at low risk, and 28% at very low risk.
• The zud phenomenon is characterized by extreme cold, heavy snow, or drought followed by sudden harsh winters, posing a significant threat to Mongolia's herding communities.
• Local authorities and herders are urged to begin preparations to protect vulnerable households and safeguard livestock.
• The forecast highlights the growing urgency of climate resilience strategies as Mongolia faces the impacts of environmental extremes and climate change.
• The NAMEM's Agricultural Meteorology Research Division is emphasizing the importance of early preparedness to mitigate potential losses.
• The forecast was developed using a combination of ground-based observations and satellite data, including key indicators such as drought conditions, summer pasture growth, air temperature anomalies, and snow cover and depth.

Statistics:

• 3% of Mongolia's territory is projected to face very severe zud conditions.
• 22% of the country is at high risk of experiencing zud.
• 21% of the country is at moderate risk of experiencing zud.
• 28% of the country is at very low risk of experiencing zud.
• 26% of the country is at low risk of experiencing zud.

Sources:

• National Agency for Meteorology and Environmental Monitoring (NAMEM). (2025). Forecast for the 2025-2026 Winter-Spring Season.
• National Agency for Meteorology and Environmental Monitoring (NAMEM). (2025). Agriculture Meteorology Research Division Report.