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Nader, Ralph

Nader's Candidacy Threatens Democratic Chances of Holding On to the Presidency

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

The threat that Green Party candidate Ralph Nader's campaign may present to Democratic chances of holding on to the presidency became clear last weekend, when Vice President Al Gore abandoned his strategy of studied indifference to the Nader candidacy. Gore campaigned in Nader's strongest area, the Pacific Northwest, promising to "fight to protect the environment with all my heart and soul," to "protect ancient forests" and to "block new roads and timber sales in our roadless forests and ancient forest areas." Gore boasted, "I will stack my environmental record against anyone, including him (Nader)." Polls in Washington and Oregon have shown Nader getting roughly 8 percent of the vote, at the same time as Bush and Gore are running neck and neck.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Nader candidacy is the major reason Gore is in some danger of losing five of the only 10 states that Michael Dukakis carried in 1988.
  • Nader's support in four states (Oregon, Washington, New Mexico, and Maine) is considered crucial, with each state being a close contest this year.
  • Nader broke 2 percent in eight states and the District of Columbia in the 2000 elections, with his best state being Oregon at 3.59 percent.
  • If Nader were to get half of his 8 percent vote in these four states, Gore would need to get a smaller share of the vote to win.
  • Historically, third-party votes tend to get "squeezed" as elections become more closely fought, which could affect Nader's performance in the final weeks of the campaign.
  • The Socialist Party's performance in the 1900-1920 elections shows that third-party votes varied with the intensity of the contest and the intensity of the issues.
  • The premise of the Nader campaign has been boosted by the two-party candidates mirroring each other in debates, but a Bush presidency looms closer, increasing pressure on Nader voters.

Statistics:

  • 8%: Nader's vote share in Washington and Oregon
  • 2%: Nader's vote share in eight states and the District of Columbia in the 2000 elections
  • 3.59%: Nader's best state in the 2000 elections (Oregon)
  • 0.63%: Nader's vote share in the 1996 national election
  • 2%: Nader's vote share in the 1904, 1912, and 1920 elections
  • 1%: Nader's vote share in Colorado, Connecticut, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin

Sources:

  • UPI Political Analyst, James Chapin
  • The New American Voter, Warren Miller (1992)
  • Theodore Roosevelt's "Bull Moose" insurgency in 1912
  • Ross Perot's 1992 presidential campaign
  • The Socialist Party's performance in the 1900-1920 elections

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