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Mediation

Nairobi Peace Process Collapses Amid Foreign Interests and Competing Mandates

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

The Nairobi Peace Process, aimed at resolving the conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo, has collapsed due to a series of missteps and competing foreign interests. The peace initiative, commissioned by the East African Community Summit and led by former President Uhuru Kenyatta, has been effectively suspended after a "hostile takeover" by the Donald Trump administration. The US entry into the mediation space undermined both the EAC-led Nairobi Process and the African Union-backed Luanda Process, led by Angola.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Nairobi Peace Process collapsed due to a combination of factors, including a "hostile takeover" by the Donald Trump administration, which undermined the EAC-led initiative.
  • The US entry into the mediation space created competing foreign interests, ultimately disrupting the peace process.
  • The DRC government, under President Felix Tshisekedi, lost interest in the Nairobi Process after securing re-election, and the government's focus shifted to the December 2023 general elections.
  • Tensions within the Nairobi Process began in December 2022, during the inter-Congolese dialogue held in Nairobi, when delegates from various Congolese groups staged a dramatic walkout due to unpaid allowances.
  • The Nairobi Process aimed to bring together all stakeholders, including the DRC government, armed groups, civil society, and international actors, to find a peaceful resolution to the conflict through dialogue.
  • The Luanda Process, led by Angola, focused on de-escalating tensions between the DRC and Rwanda, particularly the interstate aspects of the conflict.
  • Uhuru Kenyatta blamed the collapse of the initiative on a number of factors, including his sidelining as facilitator, domestic politics in Kinshasa, and the controversial expulsion of the EAC Regional Force (EACRF) from eastern DRC.
  • Uhuru said that while progress had been made up to June 2023, momentum began to fade soon after due to the withdrawal of Kenyan troops from the regional force and the disruption of plans for the fourth Intra-Congolese Dialogue Conference.
  • The DRC President Felix Tshisekedi expelled EACRF troops, accusing them of 'cohabiting' with rebel groups, and Uhuru accused the Tshisekedi government of losing interest in the Nairobi Process after securing re-election.
  • A diplomatic source disclosed that mediation efforts were hampered by the egos of both Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame, who allegedly preferred foreign interventions over regional ones and often dismissed local peace frameworks.

Statistics:

  • December 2022: Tensions within the Nairobi Process became evident during the inter-Congolese dialogue held in Nairobi.
  • February 2023: Uhuru blamed the collapse of the initiative on a number of factors, including his sidelining as facilitator, domestic politics in Kinshasa, and the controversial expulsion of the EAC Regional Force (EACRF) from eastern DRC.
  • June 2023: Momentum began to fade in the Nairobi Process due to the withdrawal of Kenyan troops from the regional force and the disruption of plans for the fourth Intra-Congolese Dialogue Conference.
  • December 2023: General elections were held in the DRC, which disrupted plans for the fourth Intra-Congolese Dialogue Conference.

Sources:

  • Diplomatic sources told the Star the peace initiative, which was commissioned by the East African Community Summit, has effectively been suspended.
  • The Star
  • Uhuru Kenyatta's report to the joint EAC-SADC summit
  • Speech by Uhuru Kenyatta during the EAC-SADC summit
  • Interview with Prof Peter Kagwanja, a political analyst

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