Natural Gas Revenues to Outpace Petroleum Revenues by 2010

U.S. energy producers are expected to make more money from natural gas production than from oil production throughout the decade from 2000 to 2010, according to the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) annual long-term forecast of energy trends. Even in the 1990s, gas revenues are rapidly catching up with oil revenues, EIA says. The agency predicts natural gas output will increase to 20.19 Tcf in 2010, outpacing oil output, which is expected to decline.

Key Takeaways:

• Natural gas revenues will outpace petroleum revenues from 2000 to 2010, according to EIA's annual long-term forecast.
• Petroleum prices are forecasted to reach $20.72/bbl in 2000 and $28.16/bbl in 2010, while gas prices will reach $2.42/Mcf in 2000 and $3.47/Mcf in 2010.
• Natural gas output is expected to increase to 20.19 Tcf in 2010, unlike oil output which is expected to decline around 2000.
• U.S. crude oil production is expected to fall to 5.18 million b/d by the turn of the century and to 4.84 million b/d by 2005.
• New upstream technology will boost economically recoverable domestic oil reserves 41% by 2010 to an estimated 149.1 billion bbl from 108.8 billion in 1990.
• EIA projects natural gas output averaging 18.93 Tcf in 2000, 20.13 Tcf in 2005, and 20.19 Tcf in 2010.
• Wellhead prices will rise to $2.42/Mcf in 2000, $2.89 in 2005, and $3.47 in 2010.
• U.S. oil consumption will climb 1.4% annually between 1992 and 2010, reaching 19.41 million b/d in 2000, 20.51 million b/d in 2005, and 21.41 million b/d in 2010.
• Gasoline pump prices are projected to average $1.288/gallon in 2000, $1.397 in 2005, and $1.475 in 2010.

Statistics:

• Natural gas output in 2010: 20.19 Tcf
• Petroleum prices in 2000: $20.72/bbl (petroleum), $2.42/Mcf (gas)
• Petroleum prices in 2010: $28.16/bbl (petroleum), $3.47/Mcf (gas)
• U.S. crude oil production in 2000: 5.18 million b/d
• U.S. crude oil production in 2005: 4.84 million b/d
• Economically recoverable domestic oil reserves in 2010: 149.1 billion bbl
• Economically recoverable domestic oil reserves in 1990: 108.8 billion bbl
• Natural gas output in 2000: 18.93 Tcf
• Natural gas output in 2005: 20.13 Tcf
• Natural gas output in 2010: 20.19 Tcf
• Wellhead prices in 2000: $2.42/Mcf
• Wellhead prices in 2005: $2.89/Mcf
• Wellhead prices in 2010: $3.47/Mcf
• U.S. oil consumption in 2000: 19.41 million b/d
• U.S. oil consumption in 2005: 20.51 million b/d
• U.S. oil consumption in 2010: 21.41 million b/d

Sources:

• Energy Information Administration (EIA)
• American Petroleum Institute (API)
• Jay Hakes, EIA administrator