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Mediation

Netanyahu's Gamble on Hamas Backfires as Israeli Leader Seeks "Total Victory"

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

The Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, made a calculated gamble in ordering an attempted assassination of Hamas leaders in Qatar, but it seems to have backfired. The airstrike has strained relations with US ally Qatar, drawn heavy criticism from the Arab world, and endangered hopes of reaching a ceasefire. Despite this, Netanyahu shows no sign of backing down or halting the war, with his hard-line coalition still firmly behind him.

Key Takeaways:

  • The airstrike on Hamas leaders in Qatar resulted in the deaths of five low-level Hamas members and a Qatari security guard, but the intended target, senior exiled leaders, survived.
  • The attack has enraged Qatar, an influential US ally and mediator in the war, and drawn heavy criticism from the Arab world.
  • The airstrike has strained relations with the White House and thrown hopes of reaching a ceasefire into disarray, potentially endangering the 20 hostages still believed to be alive in Gaza.
  • Netanyahu's goal of "total victory" against Hamas is increasingly unlikely, making it harder for him to push a ceasefire through his hard-line coalition.
  • A successful operation in Qatar could have allowed Netanyahu to placate the hard-liners, even though it would have eliminated the officials responsible for negotiating a possible ceasefire.
  • Israel's military has rescued just eight hostages alive, and retrieved the bodies of 51 hostages, in exchange for thousands of Palestinian prisoners.
  • Qatar has helped negotiate two previous ceasefires that have released 148 hostages, including eight bodies.
  • Netanyahu has received ironclad support from the US since President Donald Trump returned to office, but appears to have strained ties with his most important ally.

Statistics:

  • 20 hostages still believed to be alive in Gaza.
  • 8 hostages rescued alive by Israel's military.
  • 51 bodies of hostages retrieved by Israel from Gaza.
  • 148 hostages released in exchange for thousands of Palestinian prisoners in previous ceasefires.
  • 5 low-level Hamas members and 1 Qatari security guard killed in the airstrike.
  • Over 23 months, Israel's 23-month offensive in Gaza has wiped out all of Hamas' top leadership inside the territory.

Sources:

  • New Delhi Times, September 16, 2023.
  • Harel Chorev, expert on Arab affairs at Tel Aviv University.
  • Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatari Prime Minister.
  • Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State.
  • President Donald Trump, US President.

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