Netanyahu's Iran Campaign Boosts His Position in Israel, Possible Truce in Gaza

For nearly 18 months, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has avoided ending the war in Gaza, fearing it would lead to the collapse of his coalition government and early elections, which polls suggested he would lose. However, after striking Iran and convincing the United States to hit its nuclear sites, Netanyahu's polling numbers have surged, and he now stands a reasonable chance of re-election. Analysts and allies note that Netanyahu's strengthened position gives him the leverage to be more flexible in negotiations over Gaza, potentially leading to a truce.

Key Takeaways:

• Netanyahu's Iran campaign has boosted his polling numbers, making him a stronger position to re-negotiate the Gaza war.
• For 18 months, Netanyahu avoided ending the war in Gaza, fearing it would lead to the collapse of his coalition government and early elections.
• Netanyahu's office has stated that Hamas must surrender and leave exile for a truce, a condition Hamas has rejected.
• Analysts suggest that Netanyahu may now have the political capital to change his position on Gaza, but it's uncertain whether he will do so.
• The Iranian campaign has given Netanyahu a "new story to tell" and burnished his security credentials, but experts question how long this narrative will endure.
• Netanyahu's coalition partners, such as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, have expressed resistance to a deal that doesn't involve the destruction of Hamas.
• Negotiations may stall or be blocked by Hamas, which has rejected Netanyahu's demands for surrender and exile.
• Some analysts believe Netanyahu can show more flexibility on a permanent truce, but Hamas wants a complete end to hostilities.

Statistics:

• Netanyahu has been avoiding ending the war in Gaza for 18 months.
• Polls suggest Netanyahu would lose early elections if they were held.
• The Iran campaign has seen Netanyahu's polling numbers surge: he is now in a stronger position than at any point since the Gaza war began in October 2023.
• The 12-day conflict with Iran has seen hundreds of paramilitary forces killed and several targets destroyed, but the scale of damage to the nuclear program remains unknown.
• Israeli representatives at the Gaza cease-fire talks have been given a broader mandate to negotiate.
• Netanyahu's government has achieved a list of accomplishments in the Iran campaign, including blunting the threat of Iran's nuclear program.

Sources:

• "For 18 months, Netanyahu refused to end the war in Gaza"
• "Netanyahu’s polling numbers are higher than at almost any point since the start of the war in Gaza in October 2023."
• "Hamas must release all the hostages, surrender, give up control of Gaza, and get out,"
• "He’s at the strongest he’s been for years,” said Mitchell Barak, a political analyst who was an adviser to Mr. Netanyahu before he became prime minister.
• "The Iran campaign definitely gives him the political capital he needs for the next election," said Tal Shalev, an Israeli political commentator.
• "Israel must now return “with all our strength to Gaza, to complete the task — to destroy Hamas and return our hostages,”
• “The choice is theirs,”
• "Netanyahu has burnished his security credentials once more."
• Neta Oren, an Israeli political expert, wrote her doctoral thesis on the effects of major events on Israeli public opinion.
• The Yom Kippur war is comparable to the current situation in Gaza because it began with Israeli military failure.
• "By the end of the Yom Kippur war, Israel was actually very successful, but the war was soon remembered as a failure,”
• "Today, the Israeli media presents the Iran campaign as a victory, but in the long run, we just don’t know how it will be perceived,”