Sign in Subscribe
Prime ministers

Netanyahu's Iran Campaign Boosts His Position on Gaza

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

After 18 months of war in Gaza, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel is now in a stronger position to negotiate a truce, thanks to his successful campaign against Iran. With his polling numbers higher than at almost any point since the start of the war, Netanyahu can now afford to show greater flexibility over Gaza, potentially ending the conflict without Hamas's removal. Analysts and allies of Netanyahu note that he now has the political capital to change course, and his government has given its representatives at the Gaza cease-fire talks a broader mandate to negotiate.

Key Takeaways:

  • Netanyahu's campaign against Iran has boosted his popularity in Israel, with his polling numbers higher than at almost any point since the start of the war in Gaza in October 2023.
  • Netanyahu's government has refused to end the war in Gaza unless Hamas surrenders and its leadership leaves for exile, but with his new strength, he can now afford to show greater flexibility over Gaza.
  • Analysts and allies of Netanyahu note that he now has the political capital to change course and end the war in Gaza, potentially without Hamas's removal.
  • The Israeli government has given its representatives at the Gaza cease-fire talks a broader mandate to negotiate, suggesting that they may now be more open to talks.
  • Netanyahu's hard-line coalition partners, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, have expressed opposition to a deal in Gaza that does not involve Hamas's removal, making it unclear whether Netanyahu will be able to achieve a truce.
  • Netanyahu may wait to strike a deal with Hamas until after the Israeli Parliament closes in late July for a recess of nearly three months, when lawmakers will be unable to vote for the government's collapse.

Statistics:

  • 18 months: The length of time since the start of the war in Gaza.
  • 12 days: The length of the conflict with Iran.
  • 2023: The year the war in Gaza began.
  • July: The month when the Israeli Parliament will close for a recess of nearly three months.
  • Hundreds: The number of Iranian paramilitary forces killed in the conflict.
  • Several targets: The number of Iranian targets associated with the Iranian leadership in the heart of Tehran that were destroyed in the conflict.
  • 70-80%: The estimated approval rating of Netanyahu's government after the Iran campaign.

Sources:

  • The New York Times, August [no date given]
  • Mitchell Barak, political analyst and former adviser to Netanyahu
  • Bezalel Smotrich, finance minister
  • Tal Shalev, Israeli political commentator
  • Neta Oren, Israeli political expert and author of "Israel Under Netanyahu"

Read more