Netanyahu's Victory in Iran Strikes Could Cement His Historical Legacy and Boost His Chances of Re-Election

Benjamin Netanyahu's long-held dream of thwarting Iran's nuclear program has brought him to the brink of redemption as prime minister of Israel. The overnight attack on Iran by the United States, coupled with Israel's recent strikes, has taken Mr. Netanyahu to the precipice of achieving his highest military priority. This success has already changed the political landscape in Israel, with Netanyahu's coalition gaining greater support than at almost any point since the start of the war with Hamas in late 2023.

Key Takeaways:

• Netanyahu's success in the Iran strikes has revived his reputation as a guardian of Israel's security and has raised his chances of re-election.
• The United States' overnight attack on Iran has brought Netanyahu to the brink of achieving his long-held dream of thwarting Iran's nuclear program.
• Netanyahu's far-right coalition partners have repeatedly threatened to quit the government if the Gaza war ended without Hamas's total defeat, but now, buoyed by the blow against Iran, Mr. Netanyahu has options.
• The success in Iran may persuade Netanyahu to compromise in the talks with Hamas and agree to a cease-fire, which in turn would raise the chances of achieving another long-held ambition: the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
• Netanyahu's party languished in the polls, but the success in Iran has given him room to maneuver and may lead to a win in the election.
• Iran fired another barrage of missiles at Israel on Sunday, and many fear it will retaliate against U.S. military bases, embassies, and interests, which could prompt more American and Israeli strikes on Iran.
• The Israeli government may wind down the war, satisfied that it has achieved most of what it hoped for, but a longer conflict risks straining Israel's air-defense system.
• "The ball is in the Iranian yard now," said Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence. "If Iran keeps on firing missiles, Israel will continue its own strikes and pursue more achievements, targeting Iran's missile launchers and missile factories, its oil industry, and its civilian leadership."
• The success in Iran has even received praise from Netanyahu's biggest domestic critics, including Yair Lapid, the leader of the opposition, who said it was a success for Netanyahu, Trump, and the free world.

Statistics:

• The United States' attack on Iran was carried out overnight, but it's unclear if it completely destroyed Iran's targets.
• Israel has been striking Iran for more than a week, and broadcasters published opinion polling that suggested Netanyahu's coalition had greater support than at almost any point since the start of the war with Hamas in late 2023.
• The success in Iran has already changed the political landscape in Israel, with Netanyahu's coalition gaining greater support.
• The Israeli government may wind down the war, but a longer conflict risks straining Israel's air-defense system.
• Iran fired another barrage of missiles at Israel on Sunday, and many fear it will retaliate against U.S. military bases, embassies, and interests.

Sources:

• Aaron Boxerman, Myra Noveck, and Gabby Sobelman contributed reporting.
• Mazal Mualem, a biographer of Benjamin Netanyahu.
• Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence.
• Nadav Shtrauchler, a former adviser to Netanyahu.
• Yair Lapid, the leader of the opposition.