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Bush, George W.

New Hampshire Primary: Bush and Gore Face Different Scenarios, McCain Surges Ahead

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

As the Iowa caucuses confirmed, Texas Governor George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore are national front-runners for the presidential nominations, but they entered the snowy New Hampshire landscape with vastly different trajectories. Bush, who won broad support in Iowa, faces a widening gap with Arizona Senator John McCain in New Hampshire polls, while Gore, who dominated the Democratic field in Iowa, surged ahead of New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley in the latest survey.

Key Takeaways:

  • Bush trails McCain by 7 points in a New Hampshire poll, with 29 percent to McCain's 36 percent.
  • Gore leads Bradley by 13 points among likely voters in the Democratic primary, with 49 percent to Bradley's 36 percent.
  • Steve Forbes, who performed surprisingly well in Iowa, hopes a New Hampshire upset will shift the momentum in his favor.
  • Alan Keyes, who unexpectedly placed third in Iowa, has seen a boost in his campaign, while Utah Senator Orrin Hatch is expected to withdraw after a lackluster showing.
  • McCain has been drawing large crowds in New Hampshire, hoping to win big and defeat Bush in South Carolina on February 19.
  • The two parties' presidential candidates face each other in back-to-back debates tonight in Manchester, NH, with Republicans Gary Bauer, George W. Bush, Steve Forbes, Alan Keyes, and John McCain debating from 6-7:30 pm, followed by Democrats Al Gore and Bill Bradley debating from 8-9 pm.

Statistics:

  • 7-point gap in New Hampshire poll between Bush and McCain.
  • 13-point lead Gore has over Bradley among likely voters in the Democratic primary.
  • 30 percent of the vote Forbes received in Iowa.
  • 1 percent of the vote Utah Senator Orrin Hatch received in Iowa.
  • 1992: the year Bush spoke about seeing a good man lose, referring to his father's loss in the presidential election.
  • February 19: the date of the South Carolina primary, where McCain hopes to defeat Bush.

Sources:

  • The New York Times
  • American Research Group
  • CNN
  • KNOW (91.1 FM)
  • The Iowa caucuses
  • The New Hampshire polls

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