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Governors

New Jersey Governor's Race Heats Up as Sherrill and Ciattarelli Battle It Out

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

As the election approaches, experts predict a tight race between Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Sherrill currently leads in polling, but Ciattarelli is still within striking distance. The candidates have been working hard to get in front of voters, and experts agree that the real fight begins now. The outcome of this election will be a key snapshot of how voters are feeling about both major parties, setting the tone for the following year's congressional midterms.

Key Takeaways:

  • Sherrill leads in recent polling, with a 9-point advantage among likely voters according to a Rutgers' Eagleton Institute of Politics poll, but Ciattarelli is still within striking distance.
  • Experts predict the race to tighten as Ciattarelli has the potential to reel in historically Democratic voters and challenge the Democratic advantage in the state Legislature.
  • Sherrill's biggest advantage is the 800,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in New Jersey.
  • Ciattarelli's alignment with President Donald Trump, whose popularity in New Jersey is sub-40%, could be a liability, but he may be able to pivot to focus on more local issues.
  • Sherrill has started to lay out her plans as governor, including freezing electricity bills and declaring a state of emergency to address the high cost of living in New Jersey.
  • Ciattarelli's third run for governor, having come within 3 or 4 points of knocking off Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021, makes this year's race a close call.
  • Ciattarelli's strategy is to try and pick off historically Democratic voters, particularly Black, Hispanic, and Orthodox Jewish voters, to support his campaign.

Statistics:

  • Sherrill leads by 9 points among likely voters according to a (https://www.rutgers.edu/news/sherrill-leads-nine-points-among-likely-voters-2025-race-new-jersey-governor) Rutgers' Eagleton Institute of Politics poll.
  • Ciattarelli is within 3 or 4 points of knocking off Gov. Phil Murphy according to previous election results.
  • There are 800,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in New Jersey.
  • President Donald Trump's popularity in New Jersey is sub-40%.

Sources:

  • (https://www.rutgers.edu/news/sherrill-leads-nine-points-among-likely-voters-2025-race-new-jersey-governor) Rutgers' Eagleton Institute of Politics poll
  • Matt Hale, associate professor of political science at Seton Hall University
  • Micah Rasmussen, director of Rider University's Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics
  • Ben Dworkin, director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship

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