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Governors

New Jersey Governor's Race Tightens as Election Nears

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

As the Jersey Shore enjoys the height of summer, voters are gearing up to head to the polls in less than 90 days for a tightly contested governor's election. The latest poll from Stimsight Research shows a narrowing gap between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, with Sherrill's lead now down to just 6 points. This is a significant drop from the 20-point advantage she held earlier, and even more so from a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll that showed just an 8-point lead last week. According to Micah Rasmussen, director of Rider University's Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics, "It's a competitive race, no matter how you slice it." New Jersey's off-year gubernatorial election is often seen as a bellwether for the nation's larger political mood, and this year's contest is expected to break norms.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Stimsight Research poll shows Mikie Sherrill's lead over Jack Ciattarelli has narrowed to 6 points, a significant drop from her earlier 20-point advantage.
  • Fairleigh Dickinson University's recent poll shows that 87% of registered Democrats plan to back Sherrill in November, highlighting the importance of undecided voters for Ciattarelli's campaign.
  • Ciattarelli's connection to President Donald Trump remains a contentious issue, with voters like Rich Centenary expressing reservations about his shift from being critical of Trump to now embracing him.
  • The Sherrill campaign has made it a mission to tie Ciattarelli to Trump, using the president's unpopularity in New Jersey to their advantage.
  • Affordable housing, high electricity bills, and property taxes are major concerns for voters, with some like Millie Roski believing Ciattarelli is more likely to tackle these issues and deliver tangible savings for voters.
  • Republicans see New Jersey as a state in play after Trump's 2020 performance, which showed a 10-point improvement from his 2016 run.

Statistics:

  • 20-point lead: Mikie Sherrill's initial advantage in the governor's race
  • 6 points: Sherrill's current lead over Jack Ciattarelli according to the Stimsight Research poll
  • 8 points: Fairleigh Dickinson University's poll showing the narrowing gap between Sherrill and Ciattarelli
  • 87%: Registered Democrats planning to back Sherrill in November, as per Fairleigh Dickinson's recent poll
  • 5 points: Trump's margin of defeat in New Jersey's 2020 election
  • 10-point improvement: Trump's performance in New Jersey compared to 2016
  • 800,000: Voter registration lead of Democrats over Republicans in New Jersey

Sources:

  • (https://gothamist.com/news/rep-mikie-sherrill-leads-jack-ciattarelli-in-new-jersey-governors-race-poll/)
  • (https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/trump-endorses-ciattarelli-for-governor-cementing-him-as-clear-gop-frontrunner/)
  • (https://gothamist.com/news/nj-electric-bills-just-rose-20-prepare-for-another-spike-next-summer-experts-say)
  • (https://gothamist.com/news/nj-lawmakers-chide-regional-power-manager-for-steep-hike-in-electricity-prices)

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