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Solar energy industry

New Study on Renewable Energy Reveals Insights into Photovoltaic Module Temperature Prediction

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Researchers at the Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana have made a significant breakthrough in the field of renewable energy by developing a new modeling methodology for predicting the temperature of photovoltaic (PV) modules in large-scale power plants. The study, published in the International Journal of Renewable Energy Development, focuses on the thermal behavior of single-axis tracked bifacial PV modules in tropical regions under high irradiation and temperature conditions.

Key Takeaways:

  • The developed modeling methodology uses symbolic regression (SR) with genetic algorithms (GA) to create an explicit, interpretable equation for predicting PV module temperature.
  • The study collected one year of data from a 19.9 MW PV plant in San Marcos, Colombia, featuring measurements of solar radiation, ambient temperature, wind speed, and module temperature.
  • The constructed SR GA model achieved a satisfactory prediction accuracy compared to classic models, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 4.14 °C and an R² of 0.91 on the test data set.
  • The results compare favorably with the standard industry NOCT model (RMSE = 8.59 °C, R² = 0.60) and the Skoplaki I model (RMSE = 5.92 °C, R² = 0.81).
  • The study found that the maximum temperature of the bifacial module is reached around 14:00h, likely due to the accumulation of temperature caused by solar tracking.
  • The research demonstrated the potential of symbolic regression with a genetic algorithm kernel for producing accurate, interpretable, and computationally economical models for advanced photovoltaic systems.

Statistics:

  • RMSE of 4.14 °C and R² of 0.91 on the test data set for the constructed SR GA model.
  • 19.9 MW PV power plant used in the study.
  • 1-year data collection period featuring measurements at 5-minute intervals.
  • 14:00h identified as the time of maximum temperature of the bifacial module.

Sources:

  • "Thermal analysis of bifacial photovoltaic modules with single-axis trackers in a large power plant: Modeling by symbolic equations in tropical climates." International Journal of Renewable Energy Development, 2025,14(6):1160-1170.
  • Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana.
  • Diponegoro University.

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