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Mayors

New York City Mayor's Race Tightens in Final Days Before Primary Day

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

The Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City has taken a dramatic turn in its final hours, with former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo and Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani locked in a razor-tight contest. A poll released on Monday by Emerson College shows Mr. Mamdani pulling ahead in the eighth round, topping Mr. Cuomo by 3.6 percentage points - matching the poll's margin of error. The contest has invigorated New Yorkers, with roughly 384,000 Democrats voting early, nearly twice as many people as voted during the same period four years ago.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Emerson College poll shows Mr. Mamdani winning in the eighth round, topping Mr. Cuomo by 3.6 percentage points, matching the poll's margin of error.
  • Mr. Cuomo has led in polls for months, but the Emerson poll is the first major survey to show Mr. Mamdani winning, reflecting his momentum among younger voters.
  • The contest has been marked by aggressive campaigning, with both candidates holding rallies and knocking on doors across the city.
  • Mr. Mamdani has a large army of canvassers who have been knocking on doors to mobilize supporters, while Mr. Cuomo relies on union members and paid volunteers to get supporters to the polls.
  • The ranked-choice voting system is expected to play a key role in the election, with Mr. Mamdani hoping to benefit from the system by getting support from voters who rank him as their second choice.
  • Several candidates have made endorsements, with Mr. Mamdani receiving the backing of Brad Lander, the left-leaning city comptroller, and Mr. Cuomo receiving the support of union members and some African American leaders.
  • The election has been characterized by negative campaigning, with Mr. Cuomo's campaign running TV ads attacking Mr. Mamdani's past support for defunding the police and Mr. Mamdani's campaign using its own ad money to attack Mr. Cuomo.

Statistics:

  • Roughly 384,000 Democrats voted early in the primary election, nearly twice as many people as voted during the same period four years ago.
  • 3.6 percentage points is the margin by which Mr. Mamdani topped Mr. Cuomo in the Emerson College poll.
  • The Emerson College poll shows Mr. Mamdani winning in the eighth round, with Mr. Cuomo taking second place.
  • The ranked-choice voting system will be used for the first time in a mayoral primary election in New York City.
  • Mr. Mamdani has received endorsements from 12 city council members, while Mr. Cuomo has received endorsements from 4 city council members.

Sources:

  • Emerson College poll, released on Monday
  • The New York Times, "New York City Mayor's Race Tightens in Final Days Before Primary Day"
  • Fix the City, a super PAC tied to Mr. Cuomo's interests
  • The Late Show With Stephen Colbert
  • Co-Op City in the Bronx
  • The New York Times, "Zohran Mamdani, a Democrat, Wins Primary for New York State Senate Seat"

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