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Kerry, John

New York's Primary Shaping Up as a Key Contest

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

With the New York primary on Super Tuesday, March 2, the stage is set for a make-or-break contest between John Edwards and John Kerry. Edwards has been working to win over grass-roots support, while Kerry has captured the endorsements of many elected officials, including Representative Charles B. Rangel and the Democratic organization in Queens. The Kerry campaign has also reached out to Ethan Geto, Dr. Dean's New York campaign manager, in an effort to tap into Dean's broad base of support in the state. However, the Dean campaign's decision to withdraw has left its volunteer base and supporters in limbo, with some turning to Edwards as a possible alternative. The question now is whether Dean's supporters can be coaxed into rallying behind Edwards, potentially giving him a crucial boost in the state.

Key Takeaways:

  • The New York primary is a crucial contest for John Edwards, who is battling to stay in the running for the Democratic nomination.
  • John Kerry has captured the endorsements of many elected officials, including Representative Charles B. Rangel and the Democratic organization in Queens.
  • Ethan Geto, Dr. Dean's New York campaign manager, is considering helping Edwards, but has not ruled out retirement from politics.
  • Geto's deputy, Eric Schmeltzer, has launched a Web site called DeaniacsforEdwards, which aims to persuade Dean supporters to back Edwards.
  • The Edwards campaign believes that Dean supporters' opposition to Kerry is rooted in his perceived ties to the Washington establishment and his perceived lack of a populist message.
  • Geto has received over 700 responses to his email message, with many indicating a willingness to support Edwards or continue to back Dean.
  • The Dean campaign's decision to withdraw has left its volunteer base and supporters in limbo, with some turning to Edwards as a possible alternative.
  • It is unclear whether the Dean "machine" will be able to be rebuilt and would support Edwards, due to its decentralized structure and fragmented nature.
  • Chris Meyer, executive director of the New York Public Interest Research Group, notes that grass-roots networks build up around ideas and individuals, and it's hard to transfer them to a new candidate.

Statistics:

  • 236 delegates are up for grabs in the New York primary, second only to California's 370 delegates.
  • The Dean campaign has 70,000 volunteers in New York who will need to be persuaded to support either Kerry or Edwards.
  • 10 states, including New York, will hold primaries on Super Tuesday, March 2, accounting for over 1,151 delegates at stake.

Sources:

  • "With New York's Primary Shaping Up as a Make-or-Break Contest for John Edwards and a Potential Nomination Clincher for John Kerry," New York Times, February 2004
  • Interview with Ethan Geto, New York Times, February 2004
  • Interview with Eric Schmeltzer, New York Times, February 2004
  • Interview with Chris Meyer, New York Public Interest Research Group, New York Times, February 2004
  • Interview with Dan Cantor, Working Families Party, New York Times, February 2004
  • "Deaniacs for Edwards," Web site, [www.deaniacsforEdwards.org](http://www.deaniacsforEdwards.org)

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