NHS Strikes Pose Serious Problems for the Government

As the government struggles to deliver its main NHS pledge to restore the 18-week wait for planned hospital care by 2029, the decision of resident doctors in England to stage their third six-month series of strikes over pay threatens to pose serious problems - political, economic, and reputational - for the government. The strikes will make it even harder to achieve the ambitious target of 92% of those waiting for hospital care to be seen within 18 weeks of referral by a GP. With over 7.4 million treatments and appointments waiting, and the NHS Confederation's chief executive, Matthew Taylor, warning that hitting the 92% target is a difficult enough ambition without further industrial action, the situation is looking increasingly challenging.

Key Takeaways:

• The strikes by resident doctors in England could embolden other NHS staff groups to take industrial action, with the Royal College of Nursing and Unison recently initiating indicative ballots about possible strike action.
• The government has inherited a waiting list of 7.4 million treatments and appointments, with no significant decrease in a year, making it challenging to meet the 92% target for waiting times within 18 weeks of referral.
• The NHS Confederation's chief executive, Matthew Taylor, has expressed concerns that hitting the 92% target is a difficult enough ambition without further industrial action, highlighting the challenges posed by the strikes.
• The Health Foundation has noted that even though previous strikes have ended, "there remains significant underlying dissatisfaction with pay" among NHS staff, with many seeing NHS salary rounds as involving doctors who are far better paid getting preferential treatment.
• The government's previous offer of a 5.4% pay rise for 2023-24 and 2024-25 has been met with resistance from the British Medical Association (BMA), which is demanding a 20% real terms fall in resident doctors' pay and refers to a 29% pay claim.
• Matthew Taylor has emphasized the difficulty of meeting the 92% target without further industrial action, and has highlighted the challenges of dealing with a forecast deficit of £6.6bn for this year.

Statistics:

• Over 7.4 million treatments and appointments are currently waiting in the NHS.
• The 92% target for waiting times within 18 weeks of referral is a challenging ambition, with Matthew Taylor warning that it is a difficult enough goal without further industrial action.
• The NHS Confederation expects that the forecast deficit of £6.6bn for this year will make it difficult for the government to offer a bigger pay rise than the 5.4% previously unveiled.
• 44 days of strikes by junior doctors in 2023 and 2024 led to a 22% rise for 2023-24 and 2024-25.
• The Health Foundation has noted that over three years of historically high inflation have led to significant underlying dissatisfaction with pay among NHS staff.

Sources:

• The Guardian: "Resident doctors in England vote to strike over pay"
• The Guardian: "NHS Confederation chief executive Matthew Taylor warns that the 92% target is a difficult enough ambition without further industrial action"
• The Health Foundation: "Dissatisfaction with pay among NHS staff remains significant"
• The British Medical Association (BMA) demands a 20% real terms fall in resident doctors' pay and refers to a 29% pay claim.
• The NHS Confederation expects that the forecast deficit of £6.6bn for this year will make it difficult for the government to offer a bigger pay rise than the 5.4% previously unveiled.