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Housing

Niagara's Housing Market Hits Lowest Pace in a Decade, Experts Cite Elevated Supply, Rising Costs, and Uncertainty

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Niagara's housing construction has cooled to its lowest pace in a decade, with new starts plummeting 23% from the same period last year. The Canadian Housing and Mortgage Corp. report, released in May, revealed that from January to May, Niagara saw 628 housing starts across all dwelling types, a significant drop from the average of 867 starts in the first five months of the year over the last decade. The slowdown is attributed to a mix of factors, including elevated supply, rising costs, tariffs, and economic uncertainties, which have led builders to pause construction rather than risk unsold inventory.

Key Takeaways:

  • Niagara's housing starts dropped to their lowest levels since 2015, with 628 starts in the first five months of 2025, down 23% from the same period last year.
  • The Canadian Housing and Mortgage Corp. report shows that the region is "quite a bit below" its average of about 867 starts for the first five months of the year over the last 10 years.
  • Elevated supply, rising costs, tariffs, and economic uncertainties are cited as the main reasons for the slowdown in construction starts.
  • The number of single-family home starts in Niagara is particularly low, with 421 starts so far in 2025, the lowest number since 2013.
  • Builders are choosing to pause construction and focus on selling existing inventory rather than taking on new projects.
  • The industry is facing a difficult time due to the uncertainty, with costs rising, banks wary of funding loans, and new supply not moving.
  • Niagara Home Builders' Association CEO Chuck McShane said that the industry is "just jittery right now" and that builders are hesitant to start new projects without a clear sales outlook.
  • The industry is advocating for government support, including stronger incentives to encourage older generations to downsize and allocate housing space for younger generations.

Statistics:

  • 628 housing starts in Niagara from January to May 2025, down 23% from the same period last year.
  • 421 single-family home starts in Niagara so far in 2025, the lowest number since 2013.
  • Niagara's average of 867 starts for the first five months of the year over the last 10 years.
  • 129 apartment dwellings started in St. Catharines in 2025.
  • 163 starts in Lincoln, mostly consisting of town homes sold in the last six to 12 months.
  • 77 starts in Welland, down from 267 starts in 2024.
  • Niagara municipalities vary in terms of starts, with St. Catharines and Lincoln experiencing increases, while Niagara Falls and Welland are lagging.

Sources:

  • Canadian Housing and Mortgage Corp. report, released in May
  • Anthony Passarelli, CHMC's lead economist for southern Ontario
  • Chuck McShane, CEO of Niagara Home Builders' Association
  • Statistics Canada
  • Niagara Home Builders' Association
  • The St. Catharines Standard

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