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Economic growth

Nigeria's Economic Growth Projection Upgraded by IMF to 3.4 Percent in 2025

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Nigeria, Africa's largest economy, has seen its economic growth projection for 2025 upgraded to 3.4 percent by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This improvement reflects Nigeria's performance in oil production and the services sector. The new forecast is a significant rise from the April 2025 estimate and signals cautious optimism for the country's economy. The IMF also projected global economic growth to reach 3.0 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026, with Sub-Saharan Africa's growth expected to hit 4.0 percent in 2025 and rise to 4.3 percent in 2026.

Key Takeaways:

  • Nigeria's economic growth projection for 2025 has been upgraded to 3.4 percent by the IMF, reflecting improved performance in oil production and the services sector.
  • The 3.4 percent growth rate is a significant rise from the April 2025 estimate and signals cautious optimism for the country's economy.
  • Global economic growth is expected to reach 3.0 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026, with slight upward revisions of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively.
  • In Sub-Saharan Africa, economic growth is projected to hit 4.0 percent in 2025 and rise to 4.3 percent in 2026, reflecting a modest increase from the April projections of 3.8 and 4.2 percent.
  • Nigeria's improved outlook is linked to stronger oil output and resilience in the services sector, although the modest growth rate suggests the country still faces challenges in addressing poverty and stimulating broad-based economic expansion.
  • Tunde Abidoye, Head of Equity Research at FBNQuest Merchant Bank, believes the upward revision reflects improved oil production and robust services performance, but notes that Nigeria still requires structural reforms and non-oil sector growth to achieve sustainable development.

Statistics:

  • IMF's economic growth projection for Nigeria in 2025: 3.4 percent
  • IMF's economic growth projection for Nigeria in 2026: 3.2 percent
  • Global economic growth projection for 2025: 3.0 percent
  • Global economic growth projection for 2026: 3.1 percent
  • Sub-Saharan Africa's economic growth projection for 2025: 4.0 percent
  • Sub-Saharan Africa's economic growth projection for 2026: 4.3 percent

Sources:

  • "World Economic Outlook (July 2025)" by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) [1]
  • "Nigeria's Economic Growth Forecast Upgraded by IMF" by FBNQuest Merchant Bank [2]

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