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International trade

Nigeria's Foreign Exchange Market to Record 70% Growth in 2025, Boosting Balance of Payment

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

As Nigeria's foreign exchange market becomes increasingly competitive, analysts at Comercio Partners project a 70% growth in the country's Balance of Payment (BoP) in 2025, compared to 2024. This growth is attributed to a combination of factors, including a stable exchange rate of the Naira, rising foreign exchange inflows, and remittances. Comercio's H2 2025 Outlook highlights the emergence of a resource-based order, which is transforming the global trade landscape. Nigeria's BoP has been improving steadily, with a surplus of $6.83 billion recorded in 2024, marking a clear turnaround from deficits in previous years.

Key Takeaways:

  • Comercio Partners projects a 70% growth in Nigeria's Balance of Payment (BoP) in 2025, driven by a competitive foreign exchange market and reduced oil importation.
  • Nigeria's BoP has improved significantly, with a surplus of $6.83 billion recorded in 2024, compared to deficits in 2023 and 2022.
  • The country's foreign reserves are expected to reach approximately $43 billion by year-end 2025, reflecting a 15.6% increase from their end-June 2025 level.
  • Stable exchange rate of the Naira, rising foreign exchange inflows, and remittances are favorable factors driving Nigeria's increasing foreign reserves.
  • Repayment of Eurobond principal and interest, bearish oil prices, and ongoing domestic production challenges pose potential headwinds in accumulating foreign reserves.
  • Comercio noted that Nigeria's debt repayment may be prioritized over genuine economic development, which could exacerbate social costs such as record-high inflation, unemployment, and worsening poverty levels.

Statistics:

  • Nigeria's BoP surplus in 2024 stood at $6.83 billion, marking a turnaround from deficits in previous years.
  • The country recorded a current account surplus of $3.73 billion in Q1 2025, amounting to about 54% of the total recorded for the entire year 2024.
  • Comercio projects external reserves to reach approximately $43 billion by year-end 2025, reflecting a 15.6% increase from their end-June 2025 level.
  • Total coupon payments for H2 2025, combined with the $1.118 billion Eurobond principal maturing in November 2025, amount to $1.813 billion.
  • Nigeria's current reserve levels can cover its debt servicing burden in 2025, with a coverage of approximately 20 times over.

Sources:

  • Comercio Partners H2 2025 Outlook, 'Reconfiguration from Global Trade to Quantum Innovation: A New Era Emerges'
  • Interview with Mr. Steve Osho, Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Comercio Partners Capital
  • Interview with Mr. Nnamdi Nwizu, CEO of Comercio Partners Trading
  • Interview with Mr. Tosin Osunkoya, CEO of Commercio Partners Asset Management

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