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Cabinet officials

Nigeria's Oil Production Stagnation: Experts Decry Federal Government's Inaction

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Nigeria's Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Sen. Heineken Lokpobiri, has expressed concerns over the country's stagnant crude oil production, which has remained below target for the past one year. Despite the implementation of various reforms, executive orders, and fiscal incentives, the daily average crude oil production has fluctuated between 1.4 million bpd and 1.5 million bpd, similar to last year's output. Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Olawale Edun, acknowledged that oil revenue performance remains below target due to underwhelming crude oil production and global price fluctuations.

Key Takeaways:

  • The daily average crude oil production in Nigeria has remained between 1.4 million bpd and 1.5 million bpd, similar to last year's output.
  • Despite reforms, executive orders, and fiscal incentives, oil production has not increased significantly in the past one year.
  • Joint Ventures and Financial/Technical Services Agreements (FTSAs) are not meant to hold the sector hostage but are frameworks built on trust that would act in the nation's best interest.
  • The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) has announced the successful crossing of the River Niger by the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) Gas Pipeline, boosting hopes of the project's completion by Q4 2025.
  • Professor Wumi Iledare, a renowned expert in petroleum economics, has stated that the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) has fallen short of its transformational promise, and the country needs to return to the original vision of transparency, accountability, and clear institutional separation of roles.
  • The industry is facing a crucial challenge to reposition and key into the marching order given by Mr. President to the NNPCL to raise national production to 3 million barrels of oil per day and 12 billion cubic feet of gas by 2030.

Statistics:

  • Daily average crude oil production: 1.4 million bpd to 1.5 million bpd (2025)
  • Crude oil production target: 3 million barrels of oil per day and 12 billion cubic feet of gas by 2030
  • Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) Gas Pipeline completion target: Q4 2025
  • Revenue performance due to underwhelming crude oil production and global price fluctuations: below target

Sources:

  • Daily Trust
  • Nigerian Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Sen. Heineken Lokpobiri
  • Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Olawale Edun
  • Chairman of IPPG, Abdulrazaq Isa
  • Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd), Engr. Bashir Bayo Ojulari
  • Professor Wumi Iledare, renowned professor of petroleum economics

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