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NOAA's Winter Outlook: A Drier and Warmer Season Ahead for the Contiguous U.S.

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its new winter outlook, predicting a drier and warmer season for a wide swath of the contiguous U.S. from December to February. The forecast is driven by a weak La Niña climate pattern, which typically brings colder and wetter conditions to the northern U.S. and drier and warmer weather in the South and along the East Coast.

Key Takeaways:

  • A northernly shift in the storm track during the winter months often accompanies La Niña events, leading to warmer and drier conditions in the South and Southeast.
  • The majority of the South, stretching from California to Florida, is projected to see above-average temperatures and either leaning or below-average precipitation.
  • Drier-than-average conditions are forecast in the desert Southwest, along the Gulf Coast, and areas from Florida to the Carolinas.
  • The West and Southwest are already experiencing moderate drought conditions, with over 61% of the region in drought as of the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report.
  • The Pacific Northwest is the most likely region to see some drought relief.
  • The Midwest is expected to see wetter-than-average conditions in the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes region, providing some drought relief.
  • However, the Midwest has an equal chance of seeing lower or above-average temperatures.
  • The East Coast, including the Northeast, New York City, and the Western Carolinas, may experience a milder-than-average winter.
  • Florida is expected to see the warmest conditions overall across the central and southern part of the state.

Statistics:

  • 61% of the West is already in moderate drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
  • The drought conditions in the Southwest and West are expected to last and worsen through the winter, from southern Texas to California.
  • The majority of the South, stretching from California to Florida, is projected to see above-average temperatures.
  • The West and Southwest are expected to be drier than average, with over 61% of the region already in drought.
  • The Midwest has an equal chance of seeing lower or above-average temperatures.
  • The East Coast, including the Northeast, New York City, and the Western Carolinas, may experience a milder-than-average winter.

Sources:

  • NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
  • Jon Gottschalck, chief of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's Operation Prediction Branch
  • U.S. Drought Monitor
  • WISHTV.com (Indiana's forecasters)
  • FOX Carolina meteorologist Chrissy Kohler
  • Greg Dee, Tampa Bay 28 meteorologist

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