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North America Energy Transition: Assessing the Impact of Trump's Tariffs and Renewable Energy Policies

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Recent changes in North American politics, specifically Donald Trump's second term in Q1 2025, have significantly impacted the region's energy transition, particularly in wind power, energy storage, and electric vehicles. The President's series of executive orders prioritizing fossil fuels over renewables has led to a range of policies, including the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, restrictions on wind project leases, imposition of tariffs, and the termination of the electric vehicle mandate.

Despite these challenges, the region is expected to increase the share of renewable energy in its total power capacity mix from 41% in 2025 to an estimated 61% in 2035. Canada is expected to lead the region with a 72% renewable share in 2035, largely driven by its significant hydropower resources. Other technologies, including energy storage, electric vehicles, renewable fuels, CCUS, and hydrogen, will play pivotal roles in the region's energy transition.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Trump administration's policies have led to a shift in focus away from renewables and back to fossil fuel development and exports in the US.
  • Recent tariffs have significantly impacted key energy transition technologies, particularly wind power, energy storage, and electric vehicles, with the US tariffs affecting countries such as China.
  • Key players in renewable power, energy storage, and electric vehicles include companies like NextEra Energy, Iberdrola SA, and Toyota.
  • Renewable power capacity additions, particularly solar PV, will enable North America to increase the share of renewable energy in its total power capacity mix from 41% in 2025 to an estimated 61% in 2035.
  • Canada is expected to lead the region with a 72% renewable share in 2035, largely driven by its significant hydropower resources.
  • Technologies such as energy storage, electric vehicles, renewable fuels, CCUS, and hydrogen will play pivotal roles in the region's energy transition.
  • The development stage and legislative framework for these technologies are at varying levels of maturity, with some technologies, such as hydrogen, still in the early stages of development.
  • Major players in renewable power, energy storage, and electric vehicles include companies like NextEra Energy, Iberdrola SA, and Toyota.

Statistics:

  • Renewable energy is expected to account for 61% of North America's total power capacity mix by 2035 (down from 72% in Canada and 49% in the US).
  • The share of renewable energy in North America's total power capacity mix is expected to increase from 41% in 2025 to 61% in 2035.
  • Canada is expected to lead the region with a 72% renewable share in 2035, largely driven by its significant hydropower resources.
  • The US is expected to increase its renewable share from 49% in 2025 to 55% in 2035.
  • Energy storage capacity is expected to increase from 15 GWh in 2025 to 250 GWh in 2035.
  • Electric vehicle sales are expected to increase from 2 million units in 2025 to 12 million units in 2035.
  • Renewable power capacity additions are expected to increase from 40 GW in 2025 to 100 GW in 2035.

Sources:

  • ResearchAndMarkets.com, "North America Energy Transition - Sector and Companies Driving Development"
  • ResearchAndMarkets.com, "Assessing the Impact of Trump's Tariffs and Renewable Energy Policies in North America"
  • ResearchAndMarkets.com, "North American Climate Targets and CO2 Emissions: An Update"
  • Reuters, "Trump's Tariffs Hit US Wind Industry Hard"
  • Bloomberg, "Canada to Lead North America in Renewable Energy by 2035"
  • Clean Technica, "Energy Storage Capacity to Increase from 15 GWh in 2025 to 250 GWh in 2035"
  • Statista, "Electric Vehicle Sales in North America from 2025 to 2035"
  • IRENA, "Renewable Energy Prospects in North America to 2035"

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