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Trimble, David

Northern Ireland Peace Settlement Faces Uncertainty as Election Results Show Divide

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

The election for the new Northern Ireland Assembly has concluded, with parties supporting the peace settlement emerging as the biggest winners. However, the outcome has also revealed a deep divide within the Protestant community, with many of David Trimble's supporters deserting him to vote for candidates opposed to the agreement. This division has raised concerns about the ability of the Assembly to function smoothly and implement the provisions of the peace plan. As a result, the prospects for a stable and inclusive government in Northern Ireland are uncertain.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Ulster Unionist Party of David Trimble and the Social Democratic and Labor Party of John Hume, both supporters of the peace settlement, will have the chance to work together to end the sectarian conflict.
  • The anti-agreement parties, including the Democratic Unionist Party of the Rev. Ian Paisley, won enough seats to potentially obstruct the Assembly's efforts to share authority with Catholics.
  • The Assembly's first obligations include creating a cross-border council with the Government of Ireland and the new Government of Northern Ireland, a move opposed by the Rev. Paisley and his followers.
  • Disputes over disarmament and paramilitary prisoner releases have contributed to David Trimble's loss of support within his own party.
  • The Assembly will require majority support from both the Protestant and Catholic blocs to make decisions, making it susceptible to obstruction by Protestant politicians opposed to the peace accord.
  • The election's complex "single transferable vote" procedure has made the tabulation slow, with only one third of the voter choices counted by 11 PM.
  • The BBC forecast showed the Ulster Unionists with 30 seats, the Social Democratic and Labor Party with 24, the Democratic Unionists with 20, Sinn Fein with 17, and the remaining 17 seats going to smaller parties.

Statistics:

  • More than 3,200 lives have been lost in sectarian conflict in Northern Ireland since 1969.
  • The peace accord was endorsed by an overwhelming number of Catholics in referendums held on May 22 in Ireland and Northern Ireland.
  • Only a slight majority of Protestants supported the accord.
  • Six of David Trimble's nine Ulster Unionist colleagues in the British Parliament failed to back him in the referendum.
  • 29 seats were won by anti-agreement forces, one short of the number required to give them the power to obstruct the Assembly.
  • More than half of voters in an attitude survey by Coopers & Lybrand for the BBC believed that the "war was not over" in Northern Ireland.

Sources:

  • BBC News, multiple articles
  • Coopers & Lybrand, attitude survey for BBC News
  • Associated Press, photograph and caption
  • The New York Times, original article (date not specified)

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