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Trimble, David

Northern Ireland Poll Suggests John Hume Set to Gain in Assembly Elections

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

A recent survey conducted by the Guardian and Irish Times indicates that John Hume's Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) is likely to reap the benefits of the peace dividend in the upcoming Northern Ireland assembly elections. The poll, conducted by the Harris Research Centre, shows the SDLP with 21% of public support, enough to make it the second biggest party in the assembly. In contrast, Sinn Fein's support has halved from 16% at the general election to 8%, a significant blow to Gerry Adams.

The survey also suggests that the Ulster Unionists, led by David Trimble, will emerge as the biggest party with 30% of support, down only two points on the general election. The Democratic Unionist Party, led by Ian Paisley, has seen its support nearly halve since the general election, from 13% to 7%.

Key Takeaways:

  • The SDLP wins 21% of public support in the survey, enough to make it the second biggest party in the assembly.
  • Sinn Fein's support has halved from 16% at the general election to 8%, a significant blow to Gerry Adams.
  • The Ulster Unionists, led by David Trimble, will emerge as the biggest party with 30% of support, down only two points on the general election.
  • The Democratic Unionist Party, led by Ian Paisley, has seen its support nearly halve since the general election, from 13% to 7%.
  • The Alliance Party remains at its general election level, 6%.
  • The small but influential loyalist parties, the Progressive Unionist Party and the Ulster Democratic Party, both linked to paramilitaries, managed only 1% each.
  • An overwhelming 73% of respondents support the peace settlement in a referendum on May 22, with support strongest among Catholics.
  • However, there is skepticism running through respondents about the chances of the agreement bringing lasting peace, with only 52% expressing any conviction that peace was round the corner.

Statistics:

  • 21% of respondents support the SDLP.
  • 8% of respondents support Sinn Fein.
  • 30% of respondents support the Ulster Unionists.
  • 7% of respondents support the Democratic Unionist Party.
  • 6% of respondents support the Alliance Party.
  • 73% of respondents support the peace settlement in a referendum.
  • 52% of respondents express conviction that peace is round the corner.
  • 31% of respondents are unsure about the chances of the agreement bringing lasting peace.
  • 15% of respondents believe the chances are poor.

Sources:

  • Harris Research Centre
  • Guardian and Irish Times
  • Northern Ireland assembly elections poll

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