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International trade

OPEC Expects Continued Global Economic Resilience Amidst Trade Uncertainties

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has expressed confidence in the global economy's ability to maintain its resilience through 2025, despite growing concerns over international trade disputes. The oil cartel has reduced its projection for crude supply growth from non-OPEC+ producers in 2026, while maintaining its forecasts for worldwide oil demand growth in both 2025 and 2026. The organisation characterises the economic outlook as fundamentally sound, acknowledging the impact of trade-related uncertainties on market sentiment.

Key Takeaways:

  • OPEC expects the global economy to demonstrate continued resilience through 2025, despite mounting concerns over international trade disputes.
  • The oil cartel has reduced its projection for crude supply growth from non-OPEC+ producers in 2026 by 70,000 barrels per day, from 800,000 to 730,000 barrels per day.
  • The organisation has maintained its previous forecasts for worldwide oil demand growth in both 2025 and 2026.
  • The OPEC+ alliance has faced challenges from accelerated production growth in United States shale operations and other non-member countries.
  • The reduction in non-OPEC+ supply growth could provide the broader alliance with enhanced flexibility in managing global oil market equilibrium.
  • OPEC has highlighted the robust economic performance of the global economy during the first six months of 2025, which is projected to sustain positive momentum throughout the second half of the year.
  • The cartel anticipates a gradual moderation in growth rates on a quarterly basis moving forward.

Statistics:

  • OPEC+ supply growth from non-member countries in 2026: 730,000 barrels per day.
  • Reduction in OPEC+ supply growth from non-member countries in 2026: 70,000 barrels per day.
  • OPEC+ supply growth from non-member countries in 2026 (previous months' estimate): 800,000 barrels per day.
  • Global economy's growth rate in the second half of 2025: Projected to sustain positive momentum, with a gradual moderation in growth rates on a quarterly basis.
  • OPEC+ alliance members: Comprises the traditional OPEC membership alongside Russia and other allied producers.

Sources:

  • Published by HT Digital Content Services with permission from KNN (Knowledge & News Network).
  • OPEC's press release, date not specified.

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