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Pakistan

Pakistan on Brink of Nuclear Test, Foreign Minister Says

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Pakistan was on the verge of a nuclear explosion, but the timing was not yet determined, Foreign Minister Gohar Ayub Khan told The Associated Press on Wednesday. Ayub's statement came a day after US intelligence services reported that Pakistan was poised to test a nuclear device in response to India's five nuclear test blasts. Pakistan's Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, remained silent on the matter, but Ayub made it clear that the decision to test was already made. "It is just like putting the key to the lock . . . it's not a question of if, but when," Ayub said.

Key Takeaways:

  • Pakistan's foreign minister, Gohar Ayub Khan, stated that the country needs only 12 hours' lead time to test a nuclear device.
  • US intelligence officials concluded on Tuesday that Pakistan has completed most of the preparations for a nuclear test in the Chagai Hills.
  • The Pakistani government has not challenged Ayub's statement that the decision to conduct a test has already been made.
  • Pakistan's Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, has been more circumspect on the matter, but Ayub emphasized that the final choice of when to test will be made by Sharif.
  • The US and other nations have urged Pakistan to refrain from conducting a nuclear test, which would likely result in international economic sanctions.
  • A Gallup Pakistan survey released on Wednesday showed that 70% of Pakistanis favor a nuclear test, with 51% wanting it immediately.
  • 30% of those surveyed urged restraint now, while 48% wanted restraint only if international lenders, including the United States, wrote off Pakistan's loans.

Statistics:

  • 70% of Pakistanis favor a nuclear test (Gallup Pakistan survey).
  • 51% of those surveyed want a nuclear test to be conducted immediately (Gallup Pakistan survey).
  • 30% of surveyed Pakistanis urge restraint now (Gallup Pakistan survey).
  • 48% of surveyed Pakistanis want restraint only if international lenders, including the United States, write off Pakistan's loans (Gallup Pakistan survey).
  • Pakistan and India have fought three wars since Pakistan gained independence from Britain in 1947.
  • Australia has offered to double its aid to Pakistan next year if Pakistan refrains from carrying out a nuclear test, from $1.6 million to $3.1 million.

Sources:

  • The Associated Press
  • Foreign Minister Gohar Ayub Khan
  • U.S. intelligence officials
  • Gallup Pakistan survey
  • The Clinton administration
  • Senior Pakistani officials
  • State Department spokesman James P. Rubin

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