Sign in Subscribe
Economic growth

Pakistan's Economic Growth Estimates Under Scrutiny: Chief Statistician Defends 2.7% Figure

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Pakistan's Chief Statistician Dr Naeemuz Zafar has defended the country's economic growth estimate of 2.7% for the current fiscal year, maintaining that it is based on a 15-year-old livestock survey and assumes full utilization of the Rs1.1 trillion development budget. However, independent economists have disputed this figure, estimating it to be closer to 2%. The controversy surrounding the economic growth figure was raised during the National Assembly Standing Committee on Finance meeting, where Leader of the Opposition Omar Ayub Khan questioned the accuracy of the GDP growth rate.

Key Takeaways:

  • The 2.7% economic growth estimate is based on a 15-year-old livestock survey and assumes full utilization of the Rs1.1 trillion development budget.
  • The livestock sector's 4.8% growth was based on a survey conducted in 2010, which has raised concerns about the accuracy of the current GDP growth rate.
  • The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth figure has been worked out in a transparent manner by following a methodology endorsed by the United Nations and international financial institutions.
  • A new agriculture and livestock census has been completed, but awaits the planning minister's approval due to budget commitments.
  • The Household Integrated Economic Survey, Labour Force Survey, and agriculture census will be ready by October for the next National Accounts Committee (NAC) meeting.
  • The planning minister has proposed a new formula for resource distribution under the National Finance Commission (NFC), moving away from the current population-centric model.
  • The government claims a 2.7% GDP growth this year, while independent economists estimate it to be closer to 2%.
  • The livestock sector's growth is driven by livestock, forestry, and minor crops, resulting in a 0.6% growth in the agriculture sector.

Statistics:

  • 2.7%: Economic growth estimate for the current fiscal year (Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics)
  • 15 years: Age of the livestock survey used to estimate the current GDP growth rate (Source: Dr Naeemuz Zafar, Chief Statistician)
  • 4.8%: Livestock sector growth rate (Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics)
  • 2010: Year the livestock survey was conducted (Source: Dr Naeemuz Zafar, Chief Statistician)
  • 2.6%: Annual population growth rate in Pakistan (Source: Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal)
  • Rs1.1 trillion: Development budget used to estimate GDP growth rate (Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics)
  • Rs662 billion: Amount spent on the federal Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) so far (Source: Finance Secretary Imdad Ullah Bosal)
  • 0.8%: Proposed allocation for next year's federal PSDP as a percentage of GDP (Source: Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal)
  • 2.6%: PSDP allocation as a percentage of GDP seven years ago (Source: Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal)

Sources:

  • Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
  • Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal
  • Chief Statistician Dr Naeemuz Zafar
  • Finance Secretary Imdad Ullah Bosal

Read more