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Food supply

Pakistan's Wheat Planting Area Declines Amid Changing Market Dynamics

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Pakistan's wheat planting area has decreased by 6.5% in 2025 compared to the previous year, with total production estimated at 29 million tonnes, a 5% increase above the five-year average. According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations, the decline in sown area is attributed to the removal of the minimum support price (MSP) in May 2024 and low domestic wheat prices during planting. Farmers shifted to more profitable crops like vegetables, oilseeds, and condiments, affecting yields in rain-fed and irrigated areas. The country faced severe localized flooding between June and early August, further impacting agricultural livelihoods.

Key Takeaways:

  • The planting area for wheat in Pakistan decreased by 6.5% in 2025 compared to the previous year.
  • Total wheat production is estimated at 29 million tonnes, 5% above the five-year average.
  • The removal of the minimum support price (MSP) in May 2024 led farmers to shift to more profitable crops, reducing the sown area.
  • Crop losses occurred in rain-fed and irrigated areas due to low domestic wheat prices and water shortages.
  • plantings of the 2025 paddy crop were completed in early August, but severe localized flooding in June and early August forced some replanting.
  • Pakistan's main cereal export, rice, is preliminarily forecast at 5.5 million tonnes for 2025.
  • Maize exports for the 2025-26 marketing year are expected at around 500,000 tonnes.
  • Domestic wheat flour prices fell by 50% between March 2024 and July 2025 due to consecutive good harvests and large imports in 2023-24.

Statistics:

  • 6.5%: Decrease in wheat planting area in 2025 compared to the previous year
  • 29 million tonnes: Estimated total wheat production in 2025
  • 5%: Increase in total wheat production above the five-year average
  • 20%: Proportion of total wheat plantings in rain-fed areas
  • 5.5 million tonnes: Preliminary forecast for rice exports in 2025
  • 500,000 tonnes: Expected maize exports for the 2025-26 marketing year
  • 50%: Drop in domestic wheat flour prices between March 2024 and July 2025

Sources:

  • Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations
  • International Monetary Fund (IMF)
  • Pakistan government documents and reports (as mentioned in the text)

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