Panama Canal Faces Operational Challenges Due to Rising Greenhouse Gas Emissions

A severe drought in Panama in 2023 depleted water available to the Panama Canal, reducing shipping by 30%. A new study projects that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, historic water lows could become the new norm by the end of the century. The study, led by Samuel Munoz, a researcher at Northeastern University, found that the occurrence of historic droughts will double by the end of the century under high emissions pathways.

Key Takeaways:

• The Panama Canal experienced a 30% decrease in shipping due to a severe drought in 2023, which depleted water available to the canal.
• A new study projects that historic water lows could become the new norm by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise.
• The study found that the occurrence of historic droughts will double by the end of the century under high emissions pathways.
• The biggest contributor to projected droughts was a decrease in rain during Panama's wet season, particularly as drought compounded over months and years.
• Higher emissions were associated with increased evaporation and a decrease in rain across all months, with the highest decrease of 50 mm (2 in) rain per month in May through August.
• A more aggressive mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions could keep the Gatun Lake water levels stable, but less mitigation would lead to droughts becoming commonplace.
• Canal authorities are already improving water use efficiency and beginning the development of a new reservoir to adapt to a potentially drier future.
• Samuel Munoz hopes to expand his study to include different operational decisions and scenarios, and to reduce uncertainties in climate model predictions for Panama.

Statistics:

• 30%: Decrease in shipping due to the drought in 2023.
• 2 meters (6 feet): The drop in water levels in Gatun Lake compared to the previous year.
• 38: Total number of ships that could move through the canal in January 2023.
• 22: Reduced number of ships that could move through the canal in January 2024 due to low water levels.
• 26 million gallons: The amount of water needed to fill the locks for ships to pass through.
• 1 year: The time period over which the water levels in Gatun Lake decreased by nearly 2 meters (6 feet).
• 75 years: The time period predicted by the study for changes in water levels in the Gatun Lake.

Sources:

• "Panama Experiences One of the Worst Droughts in its Recorded History" by News Staff, Global Warming Focus, October 20, 2023.
• "Impacts of Climate Change on the Water Cycle: A Case Study of the Panama Canal" by Samuel Munoz et al., Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union, 2023.
• "Water Levels in Gatun Lake Reach Historic Lows" by Woodwell Climate Research Center, January 2024.