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Physicians

Physician Exit Rates from Traditional Medicare Increase Post-Pandemic

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

From 2010 to 2023, a notable increase in physician exit rates from traditional Medicare was observed, with a significant spike during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a study published in JAMA Health Forum. Researchers found that the share of physicians exiting Medicare in any given year increased from 1.80 percent to 3.60 percent. The analysis also revealed that primary care physicians were more likely to exit Medicare compared to hospital-based specialists, surgical specialists, and medical specialists.

Key Takeaways:

  • The share of physicians exiting Medicare in any given year increased significantly from 1.80 percent to 3.60 percent between 2010 and 2023.
  • The age-adjusted share of primary care physicians exiting Medicare increased by 0.21 percentage points over time, which was a significantly higher annual growth in exit than that seen among surgical specialists, hospital-based specialists, and medical specialists.
  • The exit rate among primary care physicians in 2023 (4.41 percent) was higher than that seen for hospital-based specialists (3.50 percent), surgical specialists (2.99 percent), and medical specialists (2.49 percent).
  • The analysis included the annual number of Part B claims billed by each clinician (791,025 physicians) to Medicare from 2010 to 2024.
  • The researchers found a gradual increase in physician exit during 2010 to 2013, stability from 2014 to 2016, a gradual increase from 2017 to 2019, a spike during the pandemic (2020 to 2021), and a return in 2023 to levels above the 2019 rate.

Statistics:

  • The share of physicians exiting Medicare in any given year increased from 1.80 percent to 3.60 percent between 2010 and 2023.
  • The increase in the age-adjusted share of primary care physicians exiting Medicare was 0.21 percentage points per year.
  • The exit rate among primary care physicians in 2023 was 4.41 percent.
  • The exit rate among hospital-based specialists in 2023 was 3.50 percent.
  • The exit rate among surgical specialists in 2023 was 2.99 percent.
  • The exit rate among medical specialists in 2023 was 2.49 percent.

Sources:

  • JAMA Health Forum, "Physician Exit Rates From Traditional Medicare Increased After the COVID-19 Pandemic" (published online July 18)

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