Sign in Subscribe
Legislators

Politics in Thailand: The Cobra Effect and Party Shifting

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

The current political landscape in Thailand has been characterized by shifting allegiances and power struggles among parties. The Progressive Movement leader, Ms. Pannika Wanich, recently expressed her skepticism about the intentions of the Klatham Party, particularly with regards to their claim to attract 30-40 MPs from the Bhumjaithai Party. According to Ms. Pannika, this move is an exaggeration, and she doubts the feasibility of such a large-scale party shift. Furthermore, she believes that the real reason behind this move is to negotiate for ministerial positions, rather than genuine political ideology.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Klatham Party claims to have attracted Ms. Kritsada Chivathamanon, an opposition MP, but Ms. Pannika remains skeptical about the feasibility of such a large-scale party shift, estimating that there may only be one or two actual defections from the Prachachon Party.
  • The Prachachon Party is reported to have prepared for potential defections by having MPs at the ready to support the Progressive Movement, while Ms. Kritsada herself has not ruled out a move to the Klatham Party.
  • Ms. Pannika believes that the shift in party loyalty is driven by a desire for ministerial positions and power, rather than a genuine change in political ideology.
  • The phenomenon of party shifting, known as the "cobra effect," is long-standing in Thailand, with Ms. Pannika noting that it has been a problem since the constitution was drafted.
  • Ms. Pannika suggests that the people should punish party switchers by not reelecting them, rather than viewing them as "traitors" who have betrayed their original party.
  • The Klatham Party's plan to prepare for the 2027 election while denying any involvement in political bargaining has been met with skepticism by analysts, given the party's history of failed election promises.

Statistics:

  • Ms. Pannika estimates that there may only be one or two actual defections from the Prachachon Party, compared to the Klatham Party's claimed 30-40 defections.
  • The statistics show that party switchers, or "cobras," have consistently failed to win elections in the past, with Ms. Pannika stating that they have a 100% failure rate.
  • The Prachachon Party has prepared for potential defections, readying MPs to support the Progressive Movement and facilitate a smooth transition.

Sources:

  • Thai News Agency, "Pannika" sees political parties aiming to attract 30-40 MPs to replace the "Bhumjaithai Party" as an exaggeration, 15 May 2025.

Read more