Portillo's Chances of Winning Conservative Crown Hinge on Redwood's Candidacy

Conservative crown hopefuls, Michael Portillo's supporters, are weighing the potential impact of John Redwood's candidacy on their leader's chances of securing the top spot. While they acknowledge that Redwood's entry into the race is a bold move that has given him the upper hand, they doubt whether Portillo will follow suit, fearing it would make him appear reactive. A decision to run by Redwood would require Portillo's camp to swiftly gather support to prevent Redwood from solidifying his position as the Right's candidate. Redwood's supporters, however, believe his reputation as an honest politician will widen his appeal, potentially benefiting Portillo's campaign.

Key Takeaways:

• Portillo's supporters calculate that Redwood's candidacy has given him the early initiative in the struggle for the Right vote.
• Redwood's entry into the race may harm Prime Minister John Major's chances of retaining the Conservative crown.
• Portillo's team hopes to persuade Redwood's supporters to switch to their candidate after the first ballot.
• Norman Lamont is expected to be closely involved in Redwood's campaign and may see an opportunity to return to the Cabinet under a new leader.
• Conservative MPs believe that if more than 100 MPs withhold support from Major by backing a challenger or abstaining, he will be in serious trouble.

Statistics:

• 100: the threshold of MP support for an opponent or abstention that would put John Major's leadership in jeopardy.
• 1995: the year in which this analysis took place (according to the copyright information).

Sources:

• The Times (1995)