Sign in Subscribe
Youth

Post-Pandemic Pathways: North Carolina's High School Graduates Navigate Enrollment and Employment Trends

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Recent high school graduates in North Carolina have confronted an academic and economic landscape significantly altered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Disruptions to post-graduation plans have led to a pressing need for tracking students' subsequent enrollment and employment patterns. This article examines data from the state's longitudinal Common Follow-up System (CFS) and finds that college-going rates among public high school graduates have declined during the pandemic, while employment rates have risen due to a tight labor market. We consider the pathways of 195,844 students who graduated from North Carolina public high schools during the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 academic school years and compare their outcomes to pre-pandemic cohorts.

Key Takeaways:

  • The percentage of North Carolina public high school graduates enrolling in an in-state public university or community college the fall after graduation fell to 45.1% and 45.8% for the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 cohorts, respectively, from a pre-pandemic average of 47.5%.
  • Employment rates have risen for both the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 high school graduating cohorts, with the percentage of high school graduates employed in the fall of 2021 accelerating to 67.8%, about 3.8 percentage points higher than the 2019-2020 cohort and the pre-pandemic average.
  • The share of graduates only working (not enrolled) grew notably, rising 1.7% over the previous cohort and 3.6% over the pre-pandemic average.
  • For the class of 2020 graduates who had decided to immediately enroll in higher education after high school, the vast majority (roughly 78%) were still enrolled a year later in fall 2021. Indicative of a transition from enrollment to employment, some 22% of those formerly enrolled were only working as of fall 2021—a smaller percentage compared to previous cohorts.
  • The swift economic recovery has clearly factored into students' post-high school plans, with the demand for workers with some form of training beyond high school expected to continue growing in the future.
  • Programs such as NCWorks NextGen, the UNC System's NC Promise, and the NCCCS' ApprenticeshipNC can help bolster workforce and educational opportunities for various groups, especially those from low-income backgrounds.

Statistics:

  • 195,844 students who graduated from North Carolina public high schools during the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 academic school years were considered in this analysis.
  • 293,778 public high school students from the 2016-2017, 2017-2018, and 2018-2019 school years were included in the pre-pandemic cohorts.
  • The percentage of high school graduates employed in the fall of 2021 accelerated to 67.8%, about 3.8 percentage points higher than the 2019-2020 cohort and the pre-pandemic average.
  • The share of graduates only working (not enrolled) grew notably, rising 1.7% over the previous cohort and 3.6% over the pre-pandemic average.
  • For the class of 2020 graduates who had decided to immediately enroll in higher education after high school, the vast majority (roughly 78%) were still enrolled a year later in fall 2021.

Sources:

  • Raleigh: North Carolina Department of Commerce
  • 1These pre-pandemic cohorts comprise a total of 293,778 public high school students from the 2016-2017, 2017-2018, and 2018-2019 school years.
  • 2For enrollment patterns, we consider the fall semester of the academic year, which typically spans the months of August to December.
  • 3Those employed include any individual working for an unemployment insurance (UI) covered employer in North Carolina.
  • 4For the class of 2020, the share of graduates who were working but not enrolled in the second year (fall 2021) was also higher than the pre-pandemic average of 37.3%.
  • 5Definitionally, youth disconnection considers those youth ages 16-24 who are neither employed nor enrolled in school.

Read more