Preventing Conflict: Lessons from the Kosovo Crisis

As we witness the devastating consequences of NATO's air attacks on Yugoslavia, it is imperative to reflect on the lessons that can be learned from the Kosovo crisis. The diplomatic process preceding the conflict ignored or violated basic principles that could have prevented the human suffering and destruction. A careful analysis of the situation reveals several critical mistakes made by Western negotiators and their governments, which are worth highlighting to avoid similar tragedies in the future.

Key Takeaways:

• The timing of negotiations is crucial in international conflicts. The first opportunity for negotiations usually comes in the early stages of the conflict, when issues are clearly delineated but have not yet produced violent reactions. If this window is missed, a second opportunity may arise only after a long period of conflict, when both parties are exhausted and suffering from the pain of conflict.
• The 1998 conflict in Kosovo was a missed opportunity for negotiations. Prior to March 1998, there were numerous warnings that the conflict would soon turn violent, but no political commitment was made to initiate high-level negotiations. By the time talks opened in Rambouillet, France, in 1999, it was too late, and the situation was ripe for violence.
• Third-party mediators must avoid imposing their solutions on the disputing parties. Instead, they should listen patiently to the grievances, needs, and interests of the parties and guide them to solutions that the parties recognize as being in their own interest.
• Coercive threats and economic aid can be counterproductive in negotiations. The United States and its allies relied solely on threats of military action and economic penalties, which produced greater unity and determination among the Serbian government and the Kosovo Albanians. A judicious mixture of sticks and carrots would have been more effective in achieving a peaceful resolution.
• Desperation and lack of attractive alternatives can be major incubators of conflict. The desperation of the people in the Balkan region, particularly in Kosovo, was not addressed through significant economic aid. By investing in economic development programs five years ago, it is likely that this war would not have occurred.

Statistics:

• The conflict in Kosovo has resulted in hundreds of thousands of refugees and the killing of innocent civilians.
• The United States has spent billions of dollars on the air war in Yugoslavia, while opposition to economic aid on budgetary grounds has hindered efforts to address the root causes of the conflict.
• Economic aid to the Balkan region has been limited, with no offers made to assist the parties out of their desperate living conditions between 1991 and 1997.

Sources:

• P. Terrence Hopmann, "Could Diplomacy Have Avoided the War in Kosovo?" Global Beat Syndicate, 1999.
• X X X, "P. Terrence Hopmann is professor of political science and director of the Program on Global Security at the Watson Institute of International Studies, Brown University."