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Global warming

Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes in Central Asia Forecasted

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Researchers from Tsinghua University, in a study published in the International Journal of Climatology, utilized a global climate model to drive a regional climate model for high-resolution simulations in Central Asia. The study found that the Central Asian region, characterized by its arid climate and fragile ecological environment, is highly sensitive to climate change. The researchers simulated future climate changes under both low and high emission scenarios, SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study found that the average annual temperature rise for the mid-term future (2041-2060) under SSP1-2.6 is projected at 1.47°C, and under SSP5-8.5, it could reach 1.99°C.
  • Winter warming is most rapid, especially in the central regions (approximately 43°N-47°N), while the southeastern high-altitude areas experience the biggest warming in summer.
  • The spatial distribution of seasonal warming is very consistent with the reduction of surface albedo.
  • The study predicts an overall increase in average annual precipitation, with the most significant rise in the southwestern region and a decrease in the northeast.
  • Both SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios project a precipitation increase, which is more pronounced in the mid-term than the near-term future (2021-2040).
  • Precipitation is expected to rise in winter across Central Asia, while in summer it shows a varied pattern of increase in the west and decrease in the east, which is probably contributed to the changes of moisture flux.
  • The study concluded that the WRF model can reproduce better spatial and temporal patterns of temperature and precipitation in Central Asia compared to the global model, with reduced mean biases and more detailed topography insights.

Statistics:

  • Average annual temperature rise under SSP1-2.6 (2041-2060) is projected at 1.47°C.
  • Average annual temperature rise under SSP5-8.5 (2041-2060) is projected at 1.99°C.
  • Winter warming in the central regions (43°N-47°N) is most rapid.
  • Southeastern high-altitude areas experience the biggest warming in summer.
  • Precipitation is expected to rise in winter across Central Asia by a certain percentage.
  • Precipitation increase under both SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios is more pronounced in the mid-term than the near-term future (2021-2040).

Sources:

  • NewsRx. Findings from Tsinghua University in the Area of Climate Modeling Reported (Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes In Central Asia From High-resolution Wrf Simulation Under 2 Ssp Scenarios). Global Warming Focus. October 27, 2025; p 61.
  • Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes In Central Asia From High-resolution Wrf Simulation Under 2 Ssp Scenarios. International Journal of Climatology, 2025.
  • International Journal of Climatology can be contacted at: Wiley, 111 River St, Hoboken 07030-5774, NJ, USA.
  • Tsinghua University, Dept. of Earth System Sciences, Beijing, People's Republic of China.

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