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Iranian foreign relations

Radiation Risks and Contamination in Iran and the Region after US and Israeli Strikes

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

The US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites have sparked concerns about radiation leaks and contamination in Iran and neighboring countries in the region. President Donald Trump claimed that the US strikes "obliterated" key nuclear enrichment facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, while Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), warned of "very significant damage" at the Fordow site. Despite concerns about radiation risks, governments and the IAEA have confirmed that levels of radioactivity in Iran and nearby countries are normal, with no off-site radiation reported.

Key Takeaways:

  • The US strikes on Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan have caused significant damage, according to Rafael Grossi, the head of the IAEA, who warned of "very significant damage" at the Fordow site.
  • No radioactive contamination has been detected outside the targeted sites, with the IAEA confirming that levels of radioactivity in Iran and nearby countries are normal.
  • Iran had moved away its nuclear infrastructure in anticipation of an earlier Israeli strike, which may have reduced radiation risks.
  • Enrichment facilities, where uranium is enriched to make atomic bombs, are fortified underground and buried hundreds of meters deep, making them difficult to damage and lessening radiation risks.
  • Attacks on the Bushehr nuclear site, which is monitored by the IAEA, would result in a "very high release of radioactivity to the environment," according to Grossi.
  • A strike on the Bushehr plant could cause its reactor core to melt, with dire consequences, including the need for evacuation orders in areas within several hundred kilometers of the plant.
  • The IAEA chief warned that a direct hit to Bushehr would require administering iodine to populations and potentially restricting food supplies, with subsequent radiation monitoring covering distances of several hundred kilometers.
  • The Gulf States, particularly Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait, are vulnerable to contamination from a strike on the Bushehr plant, as they rely heavily on desalinated water for drinking water.
  • A report by the Qatari Prime Minister revealed that an attack on the Bushehr plant would leave the Gulf entirely contaminated and Qatar would "run out of water in three days."

Statistics:

  • 90% enrichment is needed to make an atomic bomb (Kelly, Al Jazeera).
  • 223,504 people live in the city of Bushehr, which is home to two large nuclear reactors (Kelly, Al Jazeera).
  • Bushehr is located around 750km (465 miles) south of Tehran.
  • Qatar has conducted simulations of an attack on Bushehr, according to an interview with US media personality Tucker Carlson (Qatari Prime Minister).
  • 100% of Qatar's drinking water comes from desalination.
  • 80% of the UAE's drinking water comes from desalination.
  • 50% of Saudi Arabia's water supply came from desalination as of 2023, according to the General Authority for Statistics.

Sources:

  • Al Jazeera (June 23, 2025) - "US bombs three Iranian nuclear sites after Israel strikes"
  • International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) (June 20, 2025) - "IAEA Chief Warns of Nuclear Disaster if Israel Hits Iran's Bushehr Plant"
  • Al Jazeera (June 20, 2025) - "IAEA Chief Warns of Nuclear Disaster if Israel Hits Iran's Bushehr Plant"
  • United Nations (March 11, 2011) - "IAEA Board of Governors Holds Emergency Meeting in Response to Nuclear Accident in Japan"
  • Al Jazeera (March 11, 2011) - "Japan's nuclear crisis: a timeline"
  • RIA (June 19, 2025) - "Russian energy corporation head warns of 'catastrophe comparable to Chernobyl' if Iran's Bushehr plant is hit"

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