Rapprochement and Realpolitik: Macron's Europe and the UK's Place in a Changing Continent

British and French leaders, historically entangled in a complex dance of alliances and rivalries, are now aligning against a common enemy: the threat of predatory authoritarians, headlined by Vladimir Putin and with Donald Trump as an unstated co-enemy. This shift marks a significant departure from the previous Franco-British rapprochements of the 19th century and the interwar period, when the common enemies were the Metternich system and Wilhelmine militarism, respectively. Today's landscape is characterized by the rise of environmental nihilism, the resurgence of authoritarianism, and the fragmentation of the European Union.

Key Takeaways:

• The current UK-France rapprochement is driven by a shared concern for the threat of authoritarianism and environmental nihilism, rather than ideological affinity or historical ties.
• The combined nuclear deterrent of France and the UK, despite being partially credible, starts to reach a critical threshold when considered together.
• Britain and France are the only two European nations with universalist reach and reflexes, giving them significant influence on the international stage when working together.
• The European Union's failure to come to Macron's romantic vision of a united Europe has led to disillusionment, with the French President seeking alternative alliances and partnerships.
• The accession of the UK to the Pacific trade bloc (CPTPP) was a strategic move that has opened doors for potential trade agreements and a shift away from the EU's emphasis on dynamic alignment.
• Fabian Zuleeg's proposal for a variable geometry EU, where certain members form coalitions to address specific challenges, may signal a shift in the EU's approach to its relationships with the UK and other non-EU countries.
• France faces significant economic and political challenges, with a debt compound trap, deciphering this context, *France is decoupling more and more from its European partners*, and it is essential to address the issue through fiscal cuts.
• Macron's administration is struggling to implement reforms, facing resistance from the National Assembly and internal power struggles, with potential constitutional implications.
• The UK's Brexit politics is being reevaluated in light of the EU's internal challenges and potential shifts in trade policy, with some analysts advocating for a more pragmatic approach.