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Physicians

Restricting Student Loans for Medical School Could Worsen Physician Shortage

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

The U.S. is projected to face a deficit of 187,130 physicians by 2037, with shortages particularly acute in specialties like vascular and thoracic surgery. A provision in President Trump's budget bill would restrict borrowing for medical school by eliminating the Grad PLUS loan program, which allows graduate students to cover their full tuition and living expenses through the federal government. This change would not only impact aspiring doctors but also exacerbate the country's healthcare crisis.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Grad PLUS loan program allows graduate students, including those in medical and other health professions, to cover their full tuition and living expenses through the federal government.
  • More than 80% of DO graduates who borrowed money for school relied on Grad PLUS loans, according to 2023 data from the American Association of Colleges of Osteopathic Medicine (AACOM).
  • The elimination of Grad PLUS loans would eliminate a federal loan program for graduate students, with loans becoming unavailable for new borrowers starting in the 2026-2027 school year and for existing borrowers in the 2029-2030 term.
  • The GOP-led reconciliation bill would also cap professional school federal loans at $150,000 and require universities to pay a portion of unpaid student loans back to the federal government.
  • Many aspiring doctors rely on loans to finance their educations, with more than 70% of medical students in the class of 2024 at MD-granting schools having education debt, averaging $212,341 per the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC).
  • Eliminating Grad PLUS loans and changing loan limits would free up an estimated $34.7 billion between 2025 and 2034 to pay for the tax cut bill.
  • Medical schools dispute the suggestion that these policy changes will drive down tuition and the overall cost of attending medical school.
  • The broader literature suggests that the relationship between increased availability of federal student loans and increased tuition costs is inconclusive.

Statistics:

  • The U.S. is projected to face a deficit of 187,130 physicians by 2037 (Bureau of Health Workforce).
  • More than 80% of DO graduates who borrowed money for school relied on Grad PLUS loans (AACOM, 2023).
  • The median medical school tuition for an in-state student at an MD-granting state school is $50,218 for this year (AAMC).
  • More than 70% of medical students in the class of 2024 at MD-granting schools had education debt (AAMC).
  • Students borrowed an average of $212,341 (AAMC).
  • The estimated cost savings of eliminating Grad PLUS loans and changing loan limits would be $34.7 billion between 2025 and 2034 (Congressional Budget Office).

Sources:

  • Axios, "Mike Johnson, Thune, Republican senators reveal budget bill provisions" (2025).
  • Axios, "Health care worker shortages a US crisis" (2024).
  • Bureau of Health Workforce, "Physicians Projections Factsheet" (2023).
  • American Association of Colleges of Osteopathic Medicine, "2023 data".
  • edworkforce.house.gov, "House Committee on Education and the Workforce Republicans".
  • AAMC, "Inflation-adjusted data".
  • National Bureau of Economic Research, "Working paper: Grad PLUS has not increased graduate school access" (2023).
  • Congressional Budget Office, "Estimated cost savings".

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