Rising Flood Risks in Southern New Jersey Due to Climate Change

A new study by researchers from Rowan University, published in the Applied Water Science journal, highlights the increased flood risks in southern New Jersey, particularly in coastal regions, due to frequent and extreme weather events associated with climate change. The study, which was financially supported by the USDA Rural Development, integrates precipitation data and watershed characteristics in a hydrologic model to assess flood vulnerability of two watersheds in the region. The model predicts a notable increase in peak runoff associated with high-emission precipitation projections from global climate models.

Key Takeaways:

• The study found that land imperviousness exerts the strongest influence on peak runoff predicted by the model, making it a critical factor in flood vulnerability assessments.
• The model was calibrated using past precipitation data and validated against observed peak runoff records, demonstrating good agreement between calculated and observed peak runoff data.
• The study employed model simulations based on 5-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 200-year return period precipitations to predict peak runoff from the watersheds, which showed a notable increase in peak runoff associated with high-emission precipitation projections from global climate models.
• The research highlights the redistribution of weather extremes, increased winter precipitation, and heightened flood risks in the watersheds, emphasizing the need for practical and data-driven frameworks for assessing future flood hazards.
• The study supports both technical decision-making and long-term climate adaptation strategies in flood-prone regions.

Statistics:

• The study analyzed precipitation data and watershed characteristics from two watersheds, Maurice River and Raccoon Creek, in southern New Jersey.
• The model simulations based on 5-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 200-year return period precipitations showed a notable increase in peak runoff associated with high-emission precipitation projections from global climate models.
• The results indicated a 30% increase in peak runoff above the 50-year return period threshold, highlighting the heightened flood risks in the region.

Sources:

• "Enhancing management of flood forecasting in Southern New Jersey: a HEC-HMS model development for Maurice River and Raccoon Creek Watersheds" by Rumman M. Chowdhury, Jeong Ahn, Jagadish Torlapati, and Kauser Jahan, Applied Water Science, 2025, 15(9):1-24.