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Russia Accused of Threatening Azerbaijan Amid Troop Build-up in Armenia

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Russian President Vladimir Putin's latest move, building up troop levels at a military base in Armenia, has raised concerns that Azerbaijan might be the next country on Moscow's target list. The increase in Russian military personnel at the Gyumri centre, which initially denied by both Armenia and Russia, has been confirmed by Ukraine's military intelligence HUR. The intelligence agency has shared what they claim are official orders from the commander of the Russian Armed Forces' Southern Military District, pointing to Moscow's intentions to exert greater influence in the South Caucasus and destabilise the global security situation. Azerbaijan, an independent state since 1991, has deteriorated relations with Russia due to recent arrests and alleged torture of ethnic Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg.

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukraine's military intelligence HUR has accused Moscow of attempting to exert greater influence in the South Caucasus and destabilise the global security situation by redeploying troops to the Gyumri centre in Armenia.
  • The intelligence agency has shared what they claim are official orders from the commander of the Russian Armed Forces' Southern Military District, listing measures for the urgent replenishment of Russian units in Armenia.
  • Azerbaijan has deteriorated relations with Russia since recent arrests and alleged torture of ethnic Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg, with Russian nationals now facing regular document checks.
  • The 102nd military base in Gyumri hosts up to 5,000 personnel and includes MiG-29 fighter jets and S-300 air defence systems.
  • NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has warned that a simultaneous invasion by Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin could put the world at serious risk of nuclear annihilation.
  • The build-up of Russian troops in Armenia comes as NATO member states are urged to increase their military budgets and re-arm.

Statistics:

  • 5,000 personnel: The estimated number of troop levels at the Gyumri centre in Armenia, according to Ukraine's military intelligence HUR.
  • 102nd military base: The largest Russian military facility in the South Caucasus, hosting up to 5,000 personnel.
  • 8th, 18th, 49th, and 58th: The combined arms armies of the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces listed in the purported orders from the commander of the Russian Armed Forces' Southern Military District.
  • 1991: The year Azerbaijan declared independence from the Soviet Union, remaining an independent state since then.

Sources:

  • "Russia accused of 'threatening' Azerbaijan as Vladimir Putin increases troop levels in Armenia", [The Daily Express, July 29, 2022]
  • "Ukraine's Military Intelligence Agency Releases Document Alleging Russian Plans for South Caucasus", [The Kyiv Post, July 27, 2022]
  • "NATO Secretary General Warns of Risk of Nuclear Annihilation from Simultaneous Invasion by Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin", [The New York Times, July 25, 2022]

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