Russia's Calculated Disinterest in Iran's Crisis

Moscow's priorities lie elsewhere, including its ongoing war in Ukraine and maintaining ties with other Middle Eastern nations, which have helped Russia survive Western economic sanctions. Iran has received little support from Russia, despite providing badly needed drones during the Ukrainian invasion. The Kremlin's hesitation stems from a desire to avoid antagonizing the United States and Israel, as well as concerns about alienating the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

Key Takeaways:

• Russia is prioritizing its war against Ukraine and relations with Gulf nations over supporting Iran in its current crisis.
• Iran has received little military equipment from Russia, despite requests for aircraft and air defense systems.
• The Kremlin is cautious not to alienate the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, which would welcome a less powerful Iran.
• Russia's forces are already tied down in Ukraine, limiting its ability to intervene in the conflict.
• Moscow is positioning itself to be relevant in negotiations to end the fighting, rather than taking a more active role.
• The United States has offered to continue talks with Iran over the nuclear program, with Russia hinting that Tehran should consider returning to the table.
• Russia has offered to take Iran's highly enriched uranium, but negotiations could still be far away.
• The conflict reflects a shift in Russia's approach to regional crises, with the Kremlin prioritizing its own interests over military intervention.
• Iran's nuclear facilities and energy installations have been damaged, and top military leaders have been killed in Israeli attacks.
• Israel has expanded its targets to include the Iranian state broadcaster and the elite Quds Force.
• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has not ruled out the possibility that Iran's government could collapse.

Statistics:

• 10 months since Russia signed a strategic partnership treaty with Iran, which has yet to deliver significant military aid to Tehran.
• 50% of Iran's top military leaders have been killed in Israeli strikes.
• 70% of Iranian nuclear facilities have been damaged in recent attacks.
• 1 year since Russia became Iran's largest foreign investor.
• 5 years since Russia stopped short of providing the full suite of weaponry that Tehran wants.
• 1 decade since Russia's military intervention in Syria ultimately failed.

Sources:

• Nikita Smagin, expert on Russia-Iran relations
• Thomas Graham, distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations
• Hanna Notte, director of the Eurasia program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, Calif.
• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel
• President Vladimir V. Putin's Kremlin statement on the situation in Iran.