Scottish Farmers Face Uncertain Future Amid US-UK Trade Deal

The proposed US-UK trade deal could have significant implications for Scottish farmers, as the removal of a 19% duty on bioethanol imports is likely to have a substantial impact on the market. With companies and organizations fearing the deal's potential effects, farmers are bracing themselves for a possible increase in grain prices and a decrease in demand for their products. The two main producers of bioethanol, Ensus and Vivergo, purchase around two million tonnes of wheat annually from UK farmers, and a collapse of these plants could lead to a plunge in grain prices and affect the livelihoods of many farmers.

Key Takeaways:

• The proposed US-UK trade deal could lead to a significant increase in bioethanol imports, potentially resulting in a 19% reduction in grain prices for Scottish farmers.
• Ensus and Vivergo, the two main producers of bioethanol, purchase around two million tonnes of wheat annually from UK farmers, making them a vital link in the agricultural supply chain.
• A collapse of these plants could lead to a decrease in grain demand and prices, affecting the livelihoods of Scottish farmers.
• Cattle and sheep farmers may be tempted by cheaper grain, but more efficient protein producers like the pork and poultry sectors are better positioned to take advantage of the situation.
• The deal could also impact the production of animal feed and carbon dioxide, used in food preservation and even in the NHS.
• Government ministers have acknowledged concerns and pledged to explore regulatory changes and rescue packages, but these measures are reactive and do not offer proactive protection.
• The National Farmers Union has warned that agriculture should not shoulder the burden of removing tariffs for other industries in the economy.
• Despite NFU Scotland's calls for enforceable standards, comprehensive impact assessments, and transparent labelling requirements, none of these protections are legally embedded in the deal.

Statistics:

• 1.4 billion litres of bioethanol is the estimated total demand in the US and UK market.
• 19% is the duty on bioethanol imports that would be removed under the proposed deal.
• 2 million tonnes is the amount of wheat purchased annually by Ensus and Vivergo from UK farmers.
• 160 redundancies are at risk at Vivergo, with up to 5000 supply chain jobs at risk.
• £13,000 is the tariff-free quota for beef imports from the US.

Sources:

• The Financial Times
• Government ministers
• National Farmers Union