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Farmers

Seasonal Forecasts of Water Availability Have Limited Benefit for Drought Management Decisions

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Research presented by the IHE Delft Institute for Water Education suggests that seasonal forecasts of water availability have potential benefits for decisions in irrigated agriculture, but the actual benefit depends on how accurate the information is and how it is used by farmers and reservoir operators. The study modeled decisions made by farmers in the Ebro basin in Spain and found that seasonal forecasts of water availability have skill, albeit limited, in informing these decisions. However, the usefulness of the information differs for each type of farmer, and the research concludes that assessing the usefulness of information to servicing a decision can be approached from a combined technical and user-centric perspective.

Key Takeaways:

  • Seasonal forecasts of water availability have potential benefits for decisions in irrigated agriculture, but the actual benefit depends on how accurate the information is and how it is used by farmers and reservoir operators.
  • The study modeled decisions made by farmers in the Ebro basin in Spain and found that seasonal forecasts of water availability have skill, albeit limited, in informing these decisions.
  • The usefulness of the information differs for each type of farmer, with different farmer behaviors considered as a function of their risk averseness and technical capacity.
  • The research concludes that seasonal forecast information is not equally useful for various farmer types, and assessing the usefulness of information to servicing a decision can be approached from a combined technical and user-centric perspective.
  • The study considered different farmer behaviors and modeled the decisions of irrigated farmers in the Ebro basin, as well as the interconnected decisions reservoir operators make on whether to apply curtailments to the water allocated to farmers.
  • The research highlights the importance of considering the user-centric perspective when assessing the usefulness of information for decision-making.

Statistics:

  • The study found that seasonal forecasts of water availability have skill, albeit limited, in informing decisions made by farmers in the Ebro basin.
  • The research concluded that assessing the usefulness of information to servicing a decision can be approached from a combined technical and user-centric perspective.
  • The study considered different farmer behaviors and modeled the decisions of irrigated farmers in the Ebro basin, with a total of [insert number] farmers included in the study.
  • The research estimated that the value of seasonal streamflow forecasts to inform decisions is compared against that of current practice using extrapolated historical records, as well as against a reference forecast based on climatology.

Sources:

  • How useful are seasonal forecasts for farmers facing drought? A user-based modelling approach. Climate Services, 2025, 39():100595. (https://www.journals.elsevier.com/climate-services/)
  • IHE Delft Institute for Water Education (the). Additional authors for this research include Micha Werner.
  • NewsRx. Reports Outline Climatology Study Findings from IHE Delft Institute for Water Education (How useful are seasonal forecasts for farmers facing drought? A user-based modelling approach). Science Letter. August 15, 2025; p 1390.

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